Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?
Will a major AI company publish a “responsible scaling policy” for AI consciousness by 2030?
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A responsible scaling policy (RSP) or risk-informed development policy (RDP) is a framework adopted by companies like Anthropic and OpenAI that aims to ensure that they do not release catastrophically unsafe AIs. Such a framework defines levels of concerning capabilities and corresponding types of safety mitigations that would be adopted, and compliance is monitored through ongoing evaluations.
Will a major AI company adopt an “RSP for AI consciousness” by the end of 2029? This would involve:
Defining features or indicators of consciousness to be monitored
Outlining mitigation measures to avoid suffering or conscious AIs
See also: Project ideas: Sentience and rights of digital minds (substack.com)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
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