Will @firstuserhere coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024? (10,000 Mana subsidy)
Will @firstuserhere coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024? (10,000 Mana subsidy)
resolved by
๐Ÿ’Ž
Premium
102
แน€380k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO

I am incentivized to try and resolve this as YES. I will be betting in this market as well. I've left a 30,000 Mana limit order at 30% as a baseline.

Get แน€1,000 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€41,278
2แน€12,777
3แน€4,617
4แน€3,217
5แน€2,899


Sort by:
6mo

Resolving No based on the comment thread from @AlexbGoode and @Ziddletwix

boughtแน€50,000NO
6mo

@Joshua is this really the best use of the mod message?

6mo

@mods This can resolve no. I asked fuh on discord and his paper didn't get in.

6mo

@AlexbGoode it looks like he was a coauthor on a poster. that doesn't count as a 'publication' imo but i'll wait a day to see if anyone disagrees

sold แน€6,841 NO6mo

@jacksonpolack can you be more specific? Most NeurIPS papers are called "poster," as opposed to "spotlight" or "oral" acceptances.

6mo

it says 2024 https://icml.cc/virtual/2024/36410

anyway I'm not gonna resolve it because i have a position from a year ago

6mo

@jacksonpolack cs is not my area so i might not be remembering the terminology exactly right, but the important distinction here afaik isn't that it's a "poster" (that's a typical way to present a paper at the conference and would count as a "publication"), but that it was only accepted for a "workshop", which is less prestigious than the main conference (where it doesn't appear). helpfully, fuh clarified that this wouldn't count.

6mo

@Ziddletwix ok, well i still can't resolve it because i have a big position so someone else needs to

11mo

Is anyone interested to take my position here? Let me know if you put up a limit order and I'll sell into it paying the fees.

fuh is banned. Is his real name known so this market can still be resolved?

@AlexbGoode I can verify it.

1y

@AlexbGoode Lots of people know his real name.

1y

@nikki That's good news. any chance you also know how the rebuttal for ICML went?

1y

@AlexbGoode What happened?

1y

@Paul Alt-accounts used for bonus farming (again)

1y

ICML reviews are due tomorrow!

1y
1y

@firstuserhere Care to share your scores? It would inform chances for a possible NeurIPS re-submission in June.

sold แน€852 NO1y

@firstuserhere are you able to provide a personal assessment of how this is going?

1y

Did you submit to icml?

predicted YES 1y

is this also supposed to be unranked? This one has external source verification

bought แน€100 NO from 47% to 46% 1y
Miraboughtแน€3,203YES
1y

@Mira Any new information or just the normal end-of-season market manipulations?

predicted YES 1y

@AlexbGoode I'm curious as well

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโ€™s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (๐•Š) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.