
What will be the next compound produced and tested by the ITP that will be shown to have a statistically significant effect on both median and 90th percentile lifespan?
What will be the next compound produced and tested by the ITP that will be shown to have a statistically significant effect on both median and 90th percentile lifespan?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
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What will be the next compound tested by the Interventions Testing Program (ITP) shown to have a statistically significant effect on lifespan?
ITP: Which drug(s) will increase median lifespan the most in males by 2030?
By 2030, will any treatment be shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial?
If a treatment is shown to increase human lifespan in a randomized controlled trial by 2030, what was the treatment?
Will 1,3-butanediol significantly extend the lifespan of UM-HET3 mice tested by the NIA’s Interventions Testing Program? (Cohort 13: C2017)
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Will a study show that the combination of parabiosis + genetic reprogramming will improve lifespan more than either intervention alone by 2035?
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Will NR or NMN supplementation by proven to promote longevity-related outcomes in healthy adults by 2025?
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What country will be the first to have a proven treatment that will have a significant increase maximum life expectancy?