Specifically, this question is asking, "In which year will women first outnumber men as sitting justices on the Supreme Court of the United States?" The year when this occurs will resolve YES and all others will resolve NO. The timing for resolution will be based on the local time in Washington D.C. In the event that the Supreme Court of the United States no longer exists for at least one year, this market will be nullified (N/A).
At the time of market creation on 6 December 2024, there were nine justices on the US Supreme Court, four women and five men. The US Constitution does not stipulate the number of justices, but since 1869 the precedent has been nine justices. Retired justices will not count for the purposes of this market.
Justices of the US Supreme Court are nominated by the President of the United States. If the Senate confirms the nomination then the nominee usually takes office in a matter of weeks. This market is not concerned with nominees, only those sworn into office.
Years should be added as new options when they are less than ten years into the future. The close date is arbitrary.
I will not bet in this market.
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