Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
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This question will resolve as YES if China's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surpasses that of the United States before December 31, 2050, based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.
The resolution will not take into account other economic indicators such as Gross National Product (GNP), Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), or other alternative measures of economic power.
The determination of the nominal GDP of China and the United States will be based on the current market exchange rate, not adjusted for inflation or other factors.
In the event of a significant discrepancy in economic data between the IMF and other reputable sources, the resolution will defer to the IMF figures.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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