Will Manifold consider the same paper to be the most important paper published in 2024 when polled in 2025 and 2030?
Mini
7
Ṁ1662030
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the same paper wins both of these markets.
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2025?
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Manifold successfully predict the Time's Person of the Year 2024?
75% chance
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
20% chance
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2025?
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Will Manifold "be around" in 20 years?
51% chance
Which of these Newspapers will publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024 end?
Will Manifold have multiple-choice polls by 2025?
33% chance
Will Manifold significantly improve discovery in 2024? (resolves based on a poll)
67% chance
Will Manifold be in the NYT again before the end of 2024?
63% chance
What decade will be considered the decade of the most rapid technological progress in 2040 by Manifold?