How many people will be vaccinated with the R21 vaccine in 2024
How many people will be vaccinated with the R21 vaccine in 2024
Mini
4
Ṁ266Jul 31
1D
1W
1M
ALL
3%
< 500K
13%
> 500K - 1M
39%
>1M - 10M
33%
> 10M - 40M
12%
> 40M
Context on the R21 vaccine here:
https://1dayafrica.org/r21-campaign
https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/unicef-signs-deal-deliver-new-malaria-vaccine-breakthrough-child-survival
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-recommends-malaria-vaccine-roll-out-early-2024-some-african-countries-2023-10-02/
Note that this question is for number of vaccinations not doses. Three doses are needed for a vaccination.
I will extend the close date until reliable data is available for 2024.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with 
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What total number of R21 malaria vaccine doses will be distributed in 2024?
Will the number of children vaccinated with 3 doses of the R21 malaria vaccine reach 5M before January 1st, 2025?
45% chance
Will the R21 malaria vaccine be distributed in 15 countries before July 1st, 2025?
48% chance
What will be the lowest cost per dose observed for the R21 malaria vaccine before January 1st, 2026? (currently $3.90)
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 24 months?
What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?
Will development of a universal flu vaccine have made significant progress by 2026?
51% chance
US vaccinates chickens in 2025?
21% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 100 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
35% chance
Will an mRNA HIV vaccine pass Phase 2 trials by 2025
21% chance