Will the three-year average of livestock production subsidies fall below $150M/year by 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if the three-year simple moving average of the total livestock subsidies through all subsidy programs, as reported in EWG database falls below $150M/year before January 1, 2030. The EWG database database will be checked on June 1, 2031 to account for lags in reporting or revising the data. The three-year simple moving average in any year calculated by taking the arithmetic mean of the subsidy totals in that year and the previous two years.

Yearly totals for previous years are as follows:

• 2015 $1,320,274,264

• 2016 $449,041,696

• 2017 $447,720,097

• 2018 $677,555,047

• 2019 $673,865,626

• 2020 $326,246,32

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