[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
[Metaculus] Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?
Mini
7
Ṁ117
2030
25%
chance

Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, any of the World Health Organization (WHO), European Medicines Agency (EMA), or US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announces that the influenza B/Yamagata strain has been eradicated. A synonym such as "extinct" also qualifies, as does an announcement that wild influenza B/Yamagata has been eradicated , even if there are still vaccine-derived cases. If no such announcement occurs this resolves as No before January 1, 2030. If one of these agencies declares it eradicated and another wild case subsequently appears, this still resolves as Yes

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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#Biosecurity
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