Background

The next German federal election is scheduled for 2025. Recent polls show significant shifts in voter preferences compared to the 2021 election, with the CDU/CSU leading and AfD showing strong gains. The 5% threshold rule in German elections means parties must achieve at least 5% of the vote to gain seats through proportional representation.

Resolution Criteria

Each answer will resolve to the official percentage of second votes ("Zweitstimmen") received by each party in the 2025 German federal election, as reported by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter).

For parties that form electoral alliances, their combined vote share will be counted. "Other parties" includes the sum of all parties not specifically listed in the other options.

If the election is postponed beyond 2025 or canceled, all options will resolve N/A.

Considerations

• The BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) is a newly formed party that has not previously participated in federal elections

• Current polling shows several parties hovering around the crucial 5% threshold, including FDP, The Left, and BSW

• Polling accuracy has varied historically, with some significant deviations from final results

• Regional variations can significantly impact national results, particularly in eastern German states where AfD and BSW show stronger support