This market is aimed as a proxy for "Will SF get better?" - I'm interested in brainstorming, or trading on any other proxies for the same q, please reach out to me here or on Twitter if you have any ideas.

Union Square and Market St are some of the harder hit areas: they've taken more of a beating vs the rest of the city.

Context:

• In Q4 2019, the retail direct vacancy rate in Union Square was 6.4% as reported by Cushman & Wakefield. (Source)

• In Q4 2024, the retail direct vacancy rate in SF was 19.7% (Source)

Cushing & Wakefield have published such reports about SF retail & commercial vacancy rates over the past year, and thus this market shall resolve:

• YES if Cushing & Wakefield report the Union Square retail direct vacancy rate at under 13% for Q1 2026.

• NO if they report a Union Square retail direct vacancy rate, but report it at or above 13%

• N/A if Cushing & Wakefield ceases publishing such reports. I think it's unlikely that they stop publishing such reports as they have for at least the last 5 years.