Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Defensive Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Add your own props related to Week Two (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Two finishes, but not later than that.

This market will resolve to the winner of the 2025 League of Legends World Championship, to be held in Fall 2025.  The final will be played in Chengdu, China.

Options will be added as teams qualify for the tournament, and the market will be resolved the day after the final. 

Each win in a race at the .1, .Pro, .WT, or .WC level will count as "1". Add up the total number of wins for each rider at the end of the 2025 UCI season. Stages, one-day, GC, ITT all count. TTT does not count. Only 'Road' events.

If the count for Viviani is greater than the count for Ewan, resolves Yes. Otherwise, resolves No.

Can resolve early if one rider retires or something.

If you're not sure if a particular race win counts, ask.

Steelers beat Bengals (10/16) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Rams beat Jaguars (London, Wembley) (10/19) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Dolphins beat Browns (10/19) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Raiders beat Chiefs (10/19) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Eagles beat Vikings (10/19) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Patriots beat Titans (10/19) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Giants beat Broncos (10/19) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Colts beat Chargers (10/19) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Commanders beat Cowboys (10/19) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Packers beat Cardinals (10/19) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Buccaneers beat Lions (10/20) 7:00 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Texans beat Seahawks (10/20) 10:00 PM (ESPN+)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Who will get more Points in the 2025 Formula 1 Season?

Verstappen 400 Points - 300 Points Lawson resolves Yes

Verstappen 300 Points - 400 Points Lawson resolves No

Verstappen 350 Points - 350 Points Lawson resolves N/A

Will resolve based on the division for which the team that wins the World Series plays.

Resolves N/A if for any reason the World Series is not played or completed.

Resolves yes if the most affordable option of Vision Pro 2 is originally priced at less than $3499. If Apple releases a smaller, "budget" or otherwise less advanced headset (eg. Macbook Air vs Macbook Pro), it will not count as yes. The storage also needs to be at least 256 GB.

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

Xiaofeng Wang, a cryptography professor at Indiana University, 

. His whereabouts are currently unknown. Details concerning this investigation are not currently available, but some believe they will not be disclosed because of national security reasons.

This market resolves YES if there's an official statement regarding why this raid took place. If a credible source (e.g. a whistleblower) reveals this information this market resolves YES. If there's no credible information by 2026, this market resolves NO.

The market will resolve yes if some ai company publish a solution to navier stokes as is defined in the millennium problems of the clay institute before October 20, 2025. And it is accepted by the community or revised by pairs. 

If there is a result before October 20 but not revision by pairs or community aceptance, this market won't close until that happens. 

https://www.claymath.org/millennium/navier-stokes-equation/

https://epochai.substack.com/p/openai-is-projecting-unprecedented

I plan to use that article to handle ambiguities and corner cases (mergers and acquisitions, inflation). If there's any doubt about this resolving YES or NO on a technicality, ask the clarifying question before trading.

The spirit of the question is about whether AI is a bubble. Again, any way that you can foresee that the spirit and letter of this market may differ, ask.

Any headset or glasses like product counts regardless of naming convention.

Clarification: The stock prices that are compared will be the 

. If the specified date falls on a day when the stock market is closed (e.g., a weekend or public holiday), the closing price of the 

Mamdani, Sliwa and Cuomo are there as candidates

Candidates are asked a question about Israel/antisemitism

‘Gifted’ or ‘Kindergarten’ is said by a candidate

‘Trump’ or ‘Donald Trump’ said 10 or more times by the candidates

‘Luigi’ or ‘Mangione’ is said by a candidate

‘Socialism’ or ‘Socialist’ is said by a candidate

‘Defund the police’ or ‘defunding the police’ is said by a candidate

‘Homeless’ or ‘Homelessness’ is said by a candidate

Zohran Mamdani is furthest left candidate on stage from Viewers POV

‘Minimum wage’ or ‘living wage’ is said by a candidate

‘Hate’, ‘hated’ or ‘hates’ is said by a candidate

‘Remote’ or ‘Work from home’ or ‘working from home’ is said by a candidate

Hasan Piker is mentioned, or he is alluded to without mentioning his name(see desc)

Any US State (aside from New York) is mentioned by a candidate

‘endorse’ or ‘endorsement’ is said by a candidate

‘Twitter’ or ‘Tweet’ is said by a candidate (X does NOT count)

‘Mexico’ or ‘Mexican’ is said by a candidate

‘Communism’ or ‘Communist’ is said by a candidate

‘Shoplift’ or ‘shoplifting’ is said by a candidate

‘2028’ or ‘28’ is said by a candidate

‘Schumer’ or ‘Jeffries’ is said by a candidate

‘Aoc’ or ‘Ocasio-Cortez’ is said by a candidate

‘Mets’ or ‘Yankees’ is said by a candidate 

‘Giants’ or ‘Jets’ is said by a candidate

'Netanyahu' or 'Bibi' is said by a candidate

Resolves Based on what happens at the NYC Mayoral debate occurring on Thursday October 16 at 7pm, scheduled and sponsored by the New York City campaign finance board.  Should a debate not occur at that time, whatever debate that is the first mayoral debate sponsored by the New York City campaign finance board will be used. Should no debate be hosted before the election, this market will N/a. 

https://www.nyccfb.info/media/advisories/nyc-campaign-finance-board-announces-schedule-for-official-2025-general-election-debates-08-26/

Resolves based on Live stream viewing, video clips, and transcripts.

‘s and s count as a mention, for example, if someone said ‘Trump’s Healthcare Bill’, that would count as a mention of Trump. Also for example, Billionaires would count as resolution of billionaire

Must be exact word otherwise. For example, saying Pre-K would not resolve Kindergarten as YES.

Hasan Piker /Hasanabi market- resolves based on live stream viewing and social media comments.  If ‘Hasan Piker’ is said, resolves YES.  If Someone says, Zohran is friends with a guy who said America deserved 9/11, resolves YES, as this would be clear based on past comments by candidates it refers to Hasan.  If I’m unsure, I’ll review social media commentary to see if a comment is believed to refer to Hasan, and as a last resort I can do a poll to see if people believe it referred to Hasan. I WILL NOT BET ON THE HASAN QUESTION! Thank you.

Market will close just before the debate starts.

Put suggestions in the comments for more answers to add!

This market resolves Yes when the shutdown exceeds 25 days, and No if it resolves sooner. In the event of a close call, it will resolve based on whether a new budget of any duration had been signed by President Trump by 11:59pm EST, October 25th.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Virginia_Attorney_General_election

Each option requires that the listed candidate both be nominated by their respective party and then win the election.

This is a derivative market, and will resolve according to these underlying markets:

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see 

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an 

. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. 

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses. 

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories. 

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

Resolves according to the estimate for total turnout on Wikipedia, according to whatever count is cited the most prominently (this includes the organizer estimate, if most prominent).

The No Kings 2 protest is scheduled for Saturday, October 18.

I washed my hands only lightly after filling in dishwasher liquid made of enzymes and propylene glycol and after this divided a bar of chocolate; I still intend to eat the chocolate. Will I be poisoned in any serious way from this?

Trade on politics & more