Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl favorites from previous Wednesday to Wednesday after the weeks games

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Add your own props related to Week Two (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Two finishes, but not later than that.

Eagles beat Giants (10/09) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Broncos beat Jets (London) (10/12) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Cowboys beat Panthers (10/12) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Cardinals beat Colts (10/12) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Seahawks beat Jaguars (10/12) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Chargers beat Dolphins (10/12) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Browns beat Steelers (10/12) 1:00 PM (CBS)

49ers beat Buccaneers (10/12) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Titans beat Raiders (10/12) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Bengals beat Packers (10/12) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Patriots beat Saints (10/12) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Bills beat Falcons (10/13) 7:15 PM (ESPN)

Bears beat Commanders (10/13) 8:15 PM (ABC)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Thursday 3/27, 3:00 PM:  MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO)

Thursday 3/27 3:07 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:05 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 7:00 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs LA Dodgers (NO)

Thursday 3/27 10:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO)

Thursday 3/27 10:10 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO)

Friday 3/28, 4:10 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 7:07 PM: (BAL) Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Friday 3/28, 7:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Friday 3/28, 8:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO)

Friday 3/28, 8:10 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 10:10 PM: DET Tigers  (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 1:05 PM: MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 2:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 2:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 3:07 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:05 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:15 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:15 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 8:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 9:10 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs LA Dodgers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 9:40 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:35 PM: MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:35 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:37 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:15 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:35 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 4:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 4:10 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 7:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Monday 3/31, 2:10 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Monday 3/31, 2:10 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CHW White Sox (NO)

Monday 3/31, 3:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO)

Monday 3/31, 3:05 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO)

Monday 3/31, 6:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Monday 3/31, 6:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:05 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:45 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO)

Monday 3/31, 8:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO)

Monday 3/31, 9:40PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO)

Monday 3/31, 9:40PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO)

Monday 3/31, 10:05 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics  (NO)

Monday 3/31, 10:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO)

Tuesday 4/1, 6:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 6:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Tuesday 4/1, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:05 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:40 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:40 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CWS White Sox (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:45 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 8:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs  HOU Astros (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 9:40 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 9:40 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 10:05 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 10:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 12:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Wednesday 4/2, 1:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

 Wednesday 4/2, 1:10 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

 Wednesday 4/2, 1:15 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 2:10 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CWS White Sox (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 3:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 3:35 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 6:45 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 6:45 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 8:38 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 1:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 1:05 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 4:10 PM: HOU Astros (YES) vs MIN Twins (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 7:40PM: CIN Reds (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Friday 4/4, 1:10 PM: CWS White Sox (YES) vs DET Tigers (NO)

Postponed games will resolve N/A and reposted when a makeup date is scheduled. 

Have fun and remember to trade responsibly.

Resolves YES Miami Dolphins qualify for any NFL postseason spot

Will resolve once Dolphins have mathematically clinched playoff berth or are eliminated from playoff contention

Oakland A’s [even if they no longer play in Oakland]

At the conclusion of the 2025 MLB postseason, who will win the World Series?

Note: Regardless if teams move cities during the 2024-2025 offseason, your vote for them will still count.

Resolves to the last person standing as decided by Angie

Islamic Geometric Patterns In The Metropolitan Museum Of Art

The Astral Codex Ten Commentariat (“Why Do We Suck?”)

Participation in Phase I Clinical Pharmaceutical Research

Synaptic Plasticity and Memory Hypothesis

Project Xanadu - The Internet That Might Have Been

Since the roster may change, I will add an option each friday whenever a new contestant is posted

Note to new users: shares in "Other" get automatically converted whenever a new option is added. So if you buy "Yes" shares you are voting towards all the non-listed competitors and similarly if you buy "No" shares

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

 any time from market creation (Sep 25, 2025 PT) through Dec 31, 2025 23:59 PT; otherwise 

Resolution: Dec 31, 2025, 23:59 PT, or earlier upon trigger.

Jigar Shah, director of the DOE Loan Programs Office in the US, claimed on August 8, 2024 that "we expect to produce 80% of the modules we use in this country by 2026."

https://x.com/JigarShahDC/status/1821539692614918542

This market will resolve "true" if in the Annual Solar Photovoltaic Module Shipments Report for 2026, published in August/September 2027, the peak kilowatt total of solar modules manufactured in the US is at least 80 percent of the peak kilowatt total of modules either imported to the US or manufactured in the US and sold domestically. It will resolve "false" if US manufacturing falls short of US purchases for the year 2026.

https://www.eia.gov/renewable/annual/solar_photo/

Note that "true" resolution requires only that US manufacturing be sufficient to meet 80 percent of US demand, not that that actually be where 80 percent of US-deployed modules comes from.

The market resolves “Yes” if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $150,000 USD at any point in 2025, based on data from 

. The price must be reflected as the high/low price in any 1-minute candlestick during the year. If Bitcoin does not hit $150K during 2025, the market resolves “No.”

 December 31, 2025, at 23:59 PST, or earlier if Bitcoin crosses $150K at any time during the year.

For the purpose of this question, AGI is defined on a human-centric scales as follows:

"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is the representation of generalized human cognitive abilities in software so that, faced with an unfamiliar task, the AGI system could find a solution. The intention of an AGI system is to perform any task that a human being is capable of."

U.S. PHEV sales to exceed 18,430 units in September 2025 as reported by argone national lab

This market resolves Yes when the shutdown exceeds 25 days, and No if it resolves sooner. In the event of a close call, it will resolve based on whether a new budget of any duration had been signed by President Trump by 11:59pm EST, October 25th.

Market will resolve to YES if 43.1% or higher of Americans approve of Donald Trump's performance dated November 1st, 2025 on Nate Silver's approval tracker located here at Silver Bulletin: 

https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

Resolves NO if the USA in its current form collapses, is dissolved, fractures, undergoes a coup d'état, or if the US government is overthrown, or is otherwise destroyed in its current structure, before the current government shutdown ends. Resolves YES if the government reopens. 

Note: This market will not resolve before 

Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released

, or based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9). This market's resolution will be subjective, so I will not bet in this market. 

For reference, the first Trump assassin would have been "indiscernible," the second Trump assassin would have either been "indiscernable" or "left-wing" (probably "left-wing"),  

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

 Any included in the first phase deal that is signed + any points either side seems adamant on as of the signing.

If insufficient for YES/NO, will use % resolution:

I want to try out serious vibecoding for the first time. I'm going to try making a simple fairy chess website (similar to 

 doing nothing but giving Claude Code instructions. I'm willing to handle some external stuff myself (e.g. buying a domain name, renting a VPS), but pretty much everything else will have to be Claude, including deployment. Will it work?

Debugging is allowed, but it has to be Claude doing it. That is, if I notice a problem, I'll explain the problem to Claude, and Claude has to fix it. It's allowed to fail several times with some back and forth, and I can provide suggestions, as long as it can eventually figure it out.

I'll allow myself a few high-level framework suggestions, like "use tests" or "use git". But I will not make more specific decisions for it. e.g. I wasn't willing to tell it to uninstall chess.js when it couldn't seem to figure it out.

If I decide this project is hopeless and Claude cannot do it unaided, this resolves NO.

How many ticketed attendees will attend Slutcon, occurring Oct 10-12?

, non-earlybird tickets are 1k, 3k, and 9k depending on tier.

We currently have 39 tickets purchased, as of 8/29. 

I so far have advertised multiple times on my main twitter, and made a single post on my reddit (468k followers) and fetlife (279k). 

I currently plan on posting more about it on more of my platforms (including instagram (~50k) and tiktok (~170k), and substack (~128k). 

Also am coordinating with a guy who works in a similar field to help advertise to some of his clients (small pool but high conversion promise). 

Still looking to source higher-profile presenters, but who knows?

Final number for resolution will not count volunteers, staff, performers, or presenters. We'll base it off names counted at checkin. We are not including partygoers for After Dark.

Resolves YES if the U.S. government is shutdown for more than 15 days according to 

Trade on politics & more