(JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)

[BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)

[SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)

[MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)

[MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying 

[MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race

[MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying 

[MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP

[MIA] Williams double points in the main GP

[MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race 

[IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race

[IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session 

[IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris

[IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race) 

[IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points

[MON] Physical Safety Car during the race 

[MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying 

[MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri

[MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race

[MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)

[SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)

[SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying

[SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)

[SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)

[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race

[CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)

[CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points

[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton 

[AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race

[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying 

[AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton 

[AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)

[AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.

[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race 

[GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)

[GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)

[GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.

[GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium

[BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race 

[BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race

[BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)

[BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race

[BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race

[BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)

Formula 1 (F1) 2025 season prop bets market. 

 for the upcoming GP, and leave the answer "leave it open for upcoming GP" to keep the market open.

To clarify to which GP the answer is related, write it at the beginning of the answer e.g., [JAP] if related to the Japanese GP.

If unclear, ask in the comments. I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them clearer. I may N/A submissions for any reason.

T1 just won the 2024 World Championship in League of Legends.

This will resolve YES if T1 win Worlds in 2025 and resolve NO if they lose or do not qualify.

Resolves to the winner of the FIDE 2025 Chess World Cup.  In the (extremely unlikely / unprecedented / probably illegal) event of a tie, resolves equally to the winners.

I will add other options split off from Other as the rounds progress.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2025

I will be betting on this market, so if some insane gray area arises in the resolution, I will defer to the resolution of other Manifold mods.  If the event is called off, I will N/A.  If the event is delayed, I will keep the market open.

This market will resolve to the winner of the 2025 League of Legends World Championship, to be held in Fall 2025.  The final will be played in Chengdu, China.

Options will be added as teams qualify for the tournament, and the market will be resolved the day after the final. 

This market will resolve to the driver who wins the 2025 Brazilian Grand Prix, scheduled for Sunday, November 9, 2025. The official race results published on the 

 will determine the outcome. If none of the listed drivers win, the market will resolve to "Other."

Who will get more Points in the 2025 Formula 1 Season?

Verstappen 400 Points - 300 Points Lawson resolves Yes

Verstappen 300 Points - 400 Points Lawson resolves No

Verstappen 350 Points - 350 Points Lawson resolves N/A

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

 paper describes a new way to train AI models so that they reason in latent space. Coconut doesn't have to explicitly write its thoughts in natural language (as e.g. OpenAI's o1 would).

In January of 2026, this market will resolve YES if the state-of-the-art (SotA) reasoning model uses some latent space representation of its cognitive state to reason across multiple iterations before giving its final answer.

It doesn't count if the model merely manipulates latent space within a single forward pass (since all LLMs already do this). Loosely speaking, the model has to use its weights to get a latent vector, then reuse those same weights to process that latent at least once without generating any natural language tokens in between. If it uses some mix of latents and natural language in its reasoning, this still counts as using latent space.

I will primarily be looking at reasoning-centric evaluations such as 

 to determine which model is the SotA. Ultimately, the resolution will be based on my best judgement. I will not trade in this market.

"Gemini 3" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Gemini 2 in a similar way to how Gemini 2 was the successor to Gemini 1, so Gemini 3.0 pro would count, but Gemini 2.X would not.

Models are considered released if they are accessible to some members of the public beyond a closed beta. An API-only release counts, as is one limited to payed users or users of a particular country.

Total solar power available, across all satellites from all operators. Nameplate capacity, not actual usage.

Based on industry reports and my best efforts at research; suggestions for reliable sources are welcome, hopefully there will be a clean resolution source we can track well before resolution time. Presumably some classified satellites will be hard to get data on; best guesses will be used if they matter.

https://fortune.com/2023/08/01/can-ai-chatgpt-hallucinations-be-fixed-experts-doubt-altman-openai/

Experts are starting to doubt it, and even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is a bit stumped.

Tech experts are starting to doubt that ChatGPT and A.I. 'hallucinations' will ever go away: 'This isn’t fixable'

How true will this end up being? At the end of 2025 I will evalaute whether the hallucination problem for LLMs has been fixed or still exists. If hallucinations have been solved this market resolves 

. If the outstanding hallucination problem still exists, this market will resolve 

Note: This market will not resolve before 11/9.

Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released

, or based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9). This market's resolution will be subjective, so I will not bet in this market. 

For reference, the first Trump assassin would have been "indiscernible," the second Trump assassin would have either been "indiscernable" or "left-wing" (probably "left-wing"),  

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

Several factors could influence the outcome of the 2026 House elections:

Traders should monitor these developments, as they could significantly affect the Republican Party's ability to maintain or expand its majority in the House.

Resolves YES if Trump golfs anytime during the time Friday 12:00 AM to Sunday 11:59 PM. I will use 

Track Donald Trump's golf outings and the cost to taxpayers.

Did Trump Golf Today?

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Resolves to whoever is next elected to the office, other than Nancy Pelosi, regardless if they are ever seated. Includes special elections. Expires before the next redisticting cycle; will be resolved N/A if no one wins the seat other than Pelosi by market close time.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

Everything is fine, nothing is ruined (unlikely)

There is an emergency requiring police, fire, or ambulance response (not a hoax)

We hit capacity way too early and people are sad to miss out.

The organizers do not get nearly enough sleep

An attendee writes an article about the event for Substack that gets 20+ likes

A major newspaper writes a negative story about the event

Organizers forget to post the "Best Out-of-context" quote market until halfway through 

Manifest X is coming to DC on November 8th. Tickets available at: 

 Following Skyler's previous markets (linked below), question will resolve proportionally to the 

 that go wrong. I expect to give the worst thing to go wrong 50%, second worst 30%, and third worst 20%. No one answer will win 100%. If an option shows odds above 50%, arbitrage that away. 

In the unlikely event that only two things go wrong, third place will be the "Everything is fine, nothing is ruined (unlikely)" option. There is no way only one thing will go wrong, come on.

https://manifold.markets/SkylerCrossman/what-are-the-three-worst-things-tha

https://manifold.markets/SkylerCrossman/what-are-the-worst-three-things-tha

Note: I reworded Skyler's "fire department called" to "There is an emergency requiring police, fire, or ambulance response (not a hoax)" because I could imagine you people causing shenanigans otherwise.

This market will resolve YES if and when Wikipedia's English page on the 

 (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox "Result: Ukrainian victory", and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.

It will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Ukraine is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Russia or some coalition of which Russia is a part.

Any other "result" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as "ongoing" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like "Partial Ukrainian victory" or "Ukrainian victory with territorial losses".

Resolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the "result" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the "result" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.

The closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.

Resolves no if government reopens the 13th or before.

Resolves yes if the government is still closed on the 14th at 12:01am ET.

Aston Villa beat AFC Bournemouth (Sat Nov 09, 09:00)

Brentford beat Newcastle United (Sat Nov 09, 09:00)

Chelsea beat Wolverhampton Wanderers (Sat Nov 08, 15:00)

Crystal Palace beat Brighton & Hove Albion (Sat Nov 09, 09:00)

Manchester City beat Liverpool (Sat Nov 09, 11:30)

Nottingham Forest beat Leeds United (Sat Nov 09, 09:00)

Sunderland beat Arsenal (Sat Nov 08, 12:30)

Tottenham Hotspur beat Manchester United (Sat Nov 08, 7:30)

West Ham United beat Burnley (Sat Nov 08, 10:00)

 (listed first) beats the away team in regulation+stoppage. 

 if draw or away win. Abandoned/postponed = 

Trade on politics & more