Saints beat Panthers (11/09) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Raiders beat Broncos (11/06) 8:15 PM (Prime Video)

Falcons beat Colts (11/09) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Jaguars beat Texans (11/09) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Bills beat Dolphins (11/09) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Ravens beat Vikings (11/09) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Patriots beat Buccaneers (11/09) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cardinals beat Seahawks (11/09) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Lions beat Commanders (11/09) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Steelers beat Chargers (11/09) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Eagles beat Packers (11/10) 8:15 PM (ESPN/ABC)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Resolves to the winner of the FIDE 2025 Chess World Cup.  In the (extremely unlikely / unprecedented / probably illegal) event of a tie, resolves equally to the winners.

I will add other options split off from Other as the rounds progress.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2025

I will be betting on this market, so if some insane gray area arises in the resolution, I will defer to the resolution of other Manifold mods.  If the event is called off, I will N/A.  If the event is delayed, I will keep the market open.

This market will resolve to the winner of the 2025 League of Legends World Championship, to be held in Fall 2025.  The final will be played in Chengdu, China.

Options will be added as teams qualify for the tournament, and the market will be resolved the day after the final. 

Will resolve the morning after the CFB playoff show on 11/11, showing the second set of rankings.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Yes, but only inclusive of SpaceX / Starlink

Does not include compute solely in support of normal satellite activities like communication or imaging.

On an April 2024 episode of Bloomberg ODD LOTS podcast, guest Josh Wolfe tells us that j

ust as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/josh-wolfe-the-chatgpt-of-robotics-is-coming?srnd=oddlots

https://youtu.be/qi8F3elM-3U?si=vG4sStOGD8qd7IoS

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Preferred method for resolution will be based on judgement by any of the participants in this discussion (Josh Wolfe, Tracy Alloway or Joe Weisenthal)

This market resolves to "YES" if any of the three publicly assert that we have crossed the equivalent of a "ChatGPT moment" threshold for Robotics.

I'll resolve based on whether there have been advances that capture these main elements of what Josh is predicting

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

Resolves to yes if a bitcoin is worth more than $200000 at the end of 2025

After April 7, 2025, this will happen two or more times before end of year

 price movement from one day to the next.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Republican Party holds at least 218 seats, thereby securing a majority in the House. Conversely, it will resolve to "No" if the Republicans hold fewer than 218 seats. The official election results, as reported by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, will serve as the primary source for resolution. (

The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the composition of the 120th United States Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be contested. As of June 2025, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority with 220 seats, while the Democratic Party holds 213 seats. (

Several factors could influence the outcome of the 2026 House elections:

Traders should monitor these developments, as they could significantly affect the Republican Party's ability to maintain or expand its majority in the House.

Resolves based on the election outcome per major media calls or secretary of state. 

Follows the district number in the event of redistricting

FIFA launches annual Peace Prize; inaugural winner revealed at World Cup draw

The inaugural FIFA Peace Prize will be presented by FIFA President Gianni Infantino on December 5, 2025 at the Final Draw for the FIFA World Cup 26 in Washington DC. This market resolves YES if Trump is announced as the recipient. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA announcements and major news sources covering the award ceremony.

FIFA announced the creation of a peace prize to be awarded for the first time at the World Cup draw on December 5, with FIFA President Infantino presenting the award annually on behalf of fans from around the world. Trump was passed over for the Nobel Peace Prize last month despite lobbying from fellow Republicans, various world leaders and himself. Infantino, who has a close relationship with Trump, would not confirm whether Trump will be the first recipient, stating "On the 5th of December, you will see." FIFA recently appointed Trump's daughter Ivanka to the board of a $100 million education project part-funded by 2026 World Cup ticket sales..

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

Artificial Intelligence (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

This question resolves to the TIME 2025 Person of The Year. It uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. 

If you would like to add a new candidate or consolidated answer to the market, submit them in a comment below. If a comment gets enough support, I'll open the market to submissions so that you can add it and you'll get the unique trader bonuses. 

Note that all consolidated answers must be mutually exclusive, so no more specific or general versions of existing options. The goal is to cleanly divide the probabilistic landscape into non-overlapping categories. 

If multiple options do end up being true, then those options will resolve to an even split of 100%.

Due to the ongoing government shutdown, the FAA is warning travelers that an increasing number of flights will be cancelled starting tomorrow (Friday 11/7), increasing to 10% by next week:

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/us/politics/faa-flights-air-traffic-government-shutdown.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/flight-reduction-shutdown-faa-rcna242231

Typical cancellation rates in November are below 1%, so this market asks whether the total number will be at least 10%. I plan to use the 

Bureau of Transportation Statistics website

 as my source of truth but am happy to use another one if traders convince me there's a more accurate source (contingent on it being easy enough to get the correct data).

There will be a delay in resolving this market, as I will be off-grid at the end of next week. Setting a close date of next week's end, to be resolved approximately Nov. 23 or 24. Thank you in advance for your patience.

Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA)

iShares Core Aggressive Allocation ETF (AOA)

iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (VXX)

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (SOXL)

AIS3 (Leverage Shares -3× Short Artificial Intelligence ETF)

SARK (Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF)

Direxion Daily AI & Big Data Bear 2× ETF (AIBD)

Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (ticker AIQ)

Xtrackers S&P 500 Inverse Daily Swap UCITS ETF 1C

iShares MSCI Europe Energy Sector UCITS ETF

iShares MSCI Europe Health Care Sector UCITS ETF

Xtrackers II Global Government Bond UCITS ETF 1C EUR Hedged

Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF (EUAD)

Dimensional International Small Cap Value ETF (DISV)

Defiance Daily Target Palantir 2x Short ETF (PLTZ)

ProShares Ultra s&p500 Equal Weight (URSP)

iShares® 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV)

Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF (VSGX) 

I'm investing €500+ next week, after this market closes, in the 5+ ETFs with the highest probability in this market. I’ll resolve this question three months later — “yes” for any ETF I made a profit on, “no” for any that lost money, and N/A for any I didn’t invest in.

If you don't want to add an option, please let me know and I will add them. 

"Gemini 3" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Gemini 2 in a similar way to how Gemini 2 was the successor to Gemini 1, so Gemini 3.0 pro would count, but Gemini 2.X would not.

Models are considered released if they are accessible to some members of the public beyond a closed beta. An API-only release counts, as is one limited to payed users or users of a particular country.

https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi

Trade on politics & more