Washington Commanders beat Green Bay Packers (09/11) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cincinnati Bengals (09/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

New York Giants beat Dallas Cowboys (09/14) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Chicago Bears beat Detroit Lions (09/14) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Los Angeles Rams beat Tennessee Titans (09/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

New England Patriots beat Miami Dolphins (09/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

San Francisco 49ers beat New Orleans Saints (09/14) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets (09/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Seattle Seahawks beat Pittsburgh Steelers (09/14) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Cleveland Browns beat Baltimore Ravens (09/14) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Denver Broncos beat Indianapolis Colts (09/14) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Carolina Panthers beat Arizona Cardinals (09/14) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Philadelphia Eagles beat Kansas City Chiefs (09/14) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Atlanta Falcons beat Minnesota Vikings (09/14) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Houston Texans (09/15) 7:00 PM (ABC/ESPN)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders (09/15) 10:00 PM (ESPN)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Washington Commanders (NO) @ Green Bay Packers (YES)

Jacksonville Jaguars (NO) @ Cincinnati Bengals (YES)

New York Giants (NO) @ Dallas Cowboys (YES)

Los Angeles Rams (NO) @ Tennessee Titans (YES)

New England Patriots (NO) @ Miami Dolphins (YES)

San Francisco 49ers (NO) @ New Orleans Saints (YES)

Seattle Seahawks (NO) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (YES)

Cleveland Browns (NO) @ Baltimore Ravens (YES)

Denver Broncos (NO) @ Indianapolis Colts (YES)

Carolina Panthers (NO) @ Arizona Cardinals (YES)

Philadelphia Eagles (NO) @ Kansas City Chiefs (YES)

Atlanta Falcons (NO) @ Minnesota Vikings (YES)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NO) @ Houston Texans (YES)

Los Angeles Chargers (NO) @ Las Vegas Raiders (YES)

Every week, pick one team to win by betting on them before game start. If that team wins, you move on to next week. If they lose, you are eliminated. Any team you pick one week CAN NOT be picked in any future weeks. 

Most Importantly - Prizes (Amount TBD after this Week)

I'll send out a tracking spreadsheet after Week 2.

After you submit a pick, you may bet on the market as normal and as many times as you want, the market will resolve identically to the main NFL games markets (although do note, the YES/NO is reversed here to clearly show what team you are picking):

Shameless Plug to my other fun NFL Markets:

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

Any team scores 24+ points before halftime

Any player throws for more than 350 yards and loses

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 4 TDs (including passing)

A QB has at least 3 turnovers and at least 3 TDs (including passing)

MVP Favorite Changes (Currently Josh Allen)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)*

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams (Win %)

At least one missed kicking extra point attempt

A prime number of total missed field goals + extra points

Team change in top 5 super bowl favorites by 9/17 (Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Packers, Chiefs))*

2 Point Conversions convert at 50% or higher for the Week

California Teams (Chargers, Rams, 49ers) finish the week with a better record than New York State teams (Bills, Jets, Giants)

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

The player with the most passing yards wears a prime number

Final score from any game contains two triangular numbers [0, 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28, 36, 45, 55,...]

Final score from any game contains two tetrahedral numbers [1, 4, 10, 20, 35, 56,...]

Add your own props related to Week Two (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Two finishes, but not later than that.

Thursday 3/27, 3:00 PM:  MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO)

Thursday 3/27 3:07 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:05 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO)

Thursday 3/27 4:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO)

Thursday 3/27 7:00 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs LA Dodgers (NO)

Thursday 3/27 10:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO)

Thursday 3/27 10:10 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO)

Friday 3/28, 4:10 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 7:07 PM: (BAL) Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Friday 3/28, 7:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Friday 3/28, 8:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO)

Friday 3/28, 8:10 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 9:40 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Friday 3/28, 10:10 PM: DET Tigers  (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 1:05 PM: MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 2:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 2:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 3:07 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:05 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:15 PM: NY Mets (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 7:15 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 8:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 9:10 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs LA Dodgers (NO) 

Saturday 3/29, 9:40 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:35 PM: MIL Brewers (YES) vs NY Yankees (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:35 PM: PHI Phillies (YES) vs WSH Nationals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:37 PM: BAL Orioles (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 1:40 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:10 PM: LA Angels (YES) vs CHI White Sox (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:15 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs KC Royals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:15 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 2:35 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs TEX Rangers (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 4:10 PM: CHI Cubs (YES) vs ARZ Diamondbacks (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 4:10 PM: Athletics (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Sunday 3/30, 7:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Monday 3/31, 2:10 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Monday 3/31, 2:10 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CHW White Sox (NO)

Monday 3/31, 3:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO)

Monday 3/31, 3:05 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO)

Monday 3/31, 6:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO)

Monday 3/31, 6:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:05 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO)

Monday 3/31, 7:45 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO)

Monday 3/31, 8:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO)

Monday 3/31, 9:40PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO)

Monday 3/31, 9:40PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO)

Monday 3/31, 10:05 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics  (NO)

Monday 3/31, 10:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO)

Tuesday 4/1, 6:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 6:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Tuesday 4/1, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:05 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:40 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:40 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CWS White Sox (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 7:45 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 8:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs  HOU Astros (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 9:40 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 9:40 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 10:05 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics (NO) 

Tuesday 4/1, 10:10 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 12:40 PM: TEX Rangers (YES) vs CIN Reds (NO)

Wednesday 4/2, 1:10 PM: PIT Pirates (YES) vs TB Rays (NO) 

 Wednesday 4/2, 1:10 PM: KC Royals (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

 Wednesday 4/2, 1:15 PM: LAA Angels (YES) vs STL Cardinals (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 2:10 PM: MIN Twins (YES) vs CWS White Sox (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 3:07 PM: WSH Nationals (YES) vs TOR Blue Jays (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 3:35 PM: CHC Cubs (YES) vs Athletics (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: SF Giants (YES) vs HOU Astros (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: CLE Guardians (YES) vs SD Padres (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:10 PM: DET Tigers (YES) vs SEA Mariners (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 4:40 PM: NYM Mets (YES) vs MIA Marlins (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 6:45 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 6:45 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Wednesday 4/2, 8:38 PM: ATL Braves (YES) vs LAD Dodgers (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 1:05 PM: BOS Red Sox (YES) vs BAL Orioles (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 1:05 PM: COL Rockies (YES) vs PHI Phillies (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 4:10 PM: HOU Astros (YES) vs MIN Twins (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 7:05 PM: ARZ Diamondbacks (YES) vs NYY Yankees (NO) 

Thursday 4/3, 7:40PM: CIN Reds (YES) vs MIL Brewers (NO) 

Friday 4/4, 1:10 PM: CWS White Sox (YES) vs DET Tigers (NO)

Postponed games will resolve N/A and reposted when a makeup date is scheduled. 

Have fun and remember to trade responsibly.

Liverpool beat Everton (Sat Sep 20, 12:30)

AFC Bournemouth beat Newcastle United (Sat Sep 20, 15:00)

Brighton & Hove Albion beat Tottenham Hotspur (Sat Sep 20, 15:00)

Burnley beat Nottingham Forest (Sat Sep 20, 15:00)

West Ham United beat Crystal Palace (Sat Sep 20, 15:00)

Wolverhampton Wanderers beat Leeds United (Sat Sep 20, 15:00)

Manchester United beat Chelsea (Sat Sep 20, 17:30)

Fulham beat Brentford (Sat Sep 20, 20:00)

Sunderland beat Aston Villa (Sun Sep 21, 14:00)

Arsenal beat Manchester City (Sun Sep 21, 16:30)

 (listed first) beats the away team in regulation+stoppage. 

 if draw or away win. Abandoned/postponed = 

Oakland A’s [even if they no longer play in Oakland]

Which teams will make it to the 2025 MLB Postseason?

Only 8 teams will Resolve YES here, as winning the wild card will not be sufficient for a YES Resolution, teams need to make the Division Series to count.

Note: Regardless if teams move cities during the 2024-2025 offseason, your vote for them will still count.

Also bet on the World Series winner here:

Team change in top 5 Super Bowl Favorites from 9/17 to 9/24

Add your own props related to Week Three (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Three finishes, but not later than that.

The list updates daily. Market resolves according to the September 30 update.

If a large language models beats a super grandmaster (Classic elo of above 2,700) while playing blind chess by 2028, this market resolves to YES.

I will ignore fun games, at my discretion. (Say a game where Hiraku loses to ChatGPT because he played the Bongcloud)

Some clarification (28th Mar 2023): This market grew fast with a unclear description. My idea is to check whether a general intelligence can play chess, without being created specifically for doing so (like humans aren't chess playing machines). Some previous comments I did.

1- To decide whether a given program is a LLM, I'll rely in the media and the nomenclature the creators give to it. If they choose to call it a LLM or some term that is related, I'll consider. Alternatively, a model that markets itself as a chess engine (or is called as such by the mainstream media) is unlikely to be qualified as a large language model.

2- The model can write as much as it want to reason about the best move. But it can't have external help beyond what is already in the weights of the model. For example, it can't access a chess engine or a chess game database. 

I won't bet on this market and I will refund anyone who feels betrayed by this new description and had open bets by 28th Mar 2023. This market will require judgement.

Elon Musk has expressed intention to create a new political party 

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930685402631053403?s=46&t=mr67c6cgUP2ic11sukpB0g

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk officially establishes a new political party in the United States by December 31, 2025. For the purpose of this market, a political party is defined an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in American elections and doesn’t require governmental recognition. 

Clarification: The stock prices that are compared will be the 

. If the specified date falls on a day when the stock market is closed (e.g., a weekend or public holiday), the closing price of the 

Existential risk from artificial intelligence

Trade on politics & more