Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)
@AlQuinn "...almost 60% of rank-and-file union members preferred to endorse Trump, while 34% backed Harris, according to an electronic member poll."
Could this mean that another significant polling error in favor of Trump is more likely than not? The numbers from the union don't seem to align with those typically shown in the polls.
@GGckr possibly, but much more likely they're just much more male in demographic and that pushed them to prefer Trump
@StephenBuggy Isn't that very bad for Harris? This type of polarization doesn't seem like it will benefit her.
@GGckr I think so. Trump is preferred on the issues. Abortion is the major issue where Trump is way behind - and the polling shows that it is the most important issue for many women. These unions are mostly male.
@AndrewCrosse I don’t mean to sound rude, but this isn’t what I asked. I was hoping someone might already know of a poll that could at least help observe if there was any shift. However, after checking poll aggregators, it seems there’s no polling data available following the assassination attempt.
People here need to be less defensive when asked a straightforward question.
@GGckr there's been no movement in the betting markets, compared to the first one which (combined with Biden appearing to stay in the race) put Trump's odds up to nearly 70%.
Also any polling would reflect Harris' debate performance more than this which had minimal (if any) impact.
So even if there were polls, it wouldn't answer your question
Harris' odds are currently at an all-time high
@ChinmayTheMathGuy Betting markets use polls as a reference, so if the current data is based on pre-assassination attempt polls, the market reflects that. This is not an accurate reflection of what polling will look like moving forward.
I'm not suggesting that the polls will necessarily be better or worse for anyone. I'm just pointing out that the data is still lagging behind current events.
@GGckr I guess what i was trying to say was the effect of the assination attempt was so small I don't think it would be reflected in polling. And any changes in polling should probably not be tied to it.
@GGckr That's just not true. Betting markets reacted strongly to both debates and the 1st assassination attempt in real time, without needing any poll to get their information.
@Joshua almost exactly 4 years ago this was Monmouth:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/monmouth-biden-up-5-points-on-trump-in-florida-415199
this was them claiming Biden was up 13 in PA in mid-July (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/15/poll-biden-leads-trump-pennsylvania-363880)
Final poll of PA was Biden +7 - https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_pa_110220.pdf/
etc
And yet that's still not sufficient to make them a discredited laughing stock
@Joshua I get that people are trying to be helpful, but could we stop posting these national polls here (or anywhere?)
Everyone knows that national polls are completely meaningless. I don't factor them whatsoever into my bets. Remember, there is not a single election in this country that is decided by a national vote.
@SteveSokolowski National polls aren't meaningless. They're not as specific or useful as polling from the 7 key swing states, but, for instance, if the national polling average is +10 D or +5 R, then you can be very certain that that party is going to win unless there is either across-the-board error within all the polls (which state polls are not immune from) or something wild happens (like California and New York magically going 95% D and Democrats tanking in every swing state and then some).
A +5 Harris poll implies, unless suggested otherwise, that there has been some movement that extends to swing states.
@SteveSokolowski national polling was more accurate than state polling in 2020 and 2016 so this is probably a pretty big mistake
@SemioticRivalry Just to clarify: by more accurate, do you mean margin of error or forecasting the result of the election? I presume #1 since it would be difficult to do a retrospective analysis on how so-and-so contributed to certain models that aggregate polling data (or even retroactively determine what our confidence should have been).
Latest PA polling data dropped:
Political Polls (@TotallySeriousPolling) on X
#New General Election poll - Pennsylvania
🏠 Neighborhood Yard Signs & Flags Breakdown
🔵 Harris 65% (+20 yard signs, 5 new flags)
🔴 Trump 55% (+1 rambo trump machine gun flag, -3 “Let’s Go Brandon” flags)
📊 Key Trends:
New Flags: Trump supporters have upgraded 15% of their yard signs to flags for "higher visibility," with one particularly impactful rambo trump machine gun flag (+5 point swing among local bicyclists).
"Let’s Go Brandon" Reversal: 3 "Let's Go Brandon" flags removed after mysterious disappearances (suspected wind or "accidental" HOA enforcement).
Flag to Yard Sign Ratio: Harris yards now lead 2:1 in flag/sign combo stakes.
Suffolk #B - Likely Flag Enthusiasts - 9/14
@Predictor holy shit is that machinegun shooting RPG grenades?!? Anyone else suddenly feel a weird urge to eat well done steak with ketchup?
https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Reactions_to_Harris_Trump_Debate_poll_results.pdf#page=6
Only 26% of Americans, including only 52% of Republicans, believe the Trump claim (originated by a neo-Nazi group) that "Haitian immigrants in America are eating cats."
Time will tell how the polls move, but I give Harris a ~60-65% chance at this point. More Republicans than that thought Trump won the debate. He's losing it, sanity-wise
@StarkLN I doubt this poll matters much at all in voting.
It's important to understand that most people are not ethical and they only care about themselves. They will take advantage of the system wherever they can. They overvalue their deductions on taxes, drive 10 MPH over the speed limit, and lead multiple lives - "personal lives," "business lives," "family lives," where they hide things from people they see in other lives. This is so prevalent that "privacy" is insisted upon everywhere to keep up this pretense and why in many cases it's frowned upon to drive at the posted speed. This concept should be obvious but I don't think many people have ever stopped to think about how these "norms" show how few people care about anyone other than themselves.
Thus, there are people who erroneously developed an outlook that people who care about Trump's behavior would be influenced to vote differently. On the contrary, most people don't like Trump's behavior, but those who support his policies will vote for him anyway because the only thing that matters is the impact on themselves.