@traders new market out

@traders Carlos Alcaraz has withdrawn due to an ankle injury. I'm thinking of resolving this market N/A and recreating it tommorow for the start of the tournament, since the norm in sports betting is to resolve withdrawals as N/A -- trades should be based on predictable factors, not unexpected events, also the seeding is going to be shifted.

After I recreate the market tommorow, I'll treat any withdrawals, walkovers, etc. as losses and will resolve No.

"trades should be based on predictable factors, not unexpected events".... and resolutions should be based on the tournament winner, not whatever position the market creator held

@klaus_f_roth I have adopted the policy of resolving all withdrawals as N/A starting with my US open mixed doubles market last month. Besides, if Carlos Alcaraz isn't competing, then he doesn't have a chance to win, therefore he shouldn't be considered as a possible candidate for winning.

@105du Withdrawals are pretty common in tennis; if you're going to have that policy you might as well wait until the tournament starts to make the market. Besides, there is already a mechanic for altering a market to reflect a player no longer participating - resolving 'no'. The idea that prediction markets aren't supposed to react to surprising events is really bizarre... should we also resolve N/A if a player gets injured?

@klaus_f_roth Injuries in the middle of a match are different, the player at least had a chance to compete. Besides, withdrawals are not as common as you think, especially not 1 day before the start of a tournament.

@105du You miss my point: you said above that "trades should be based on predictable factors, not unexpected events", and so resolved early to prevent profits from reacting to surprising information. But an injury is exactly the same kind of surprising event. If you think trades shouldn't be made based on withdrawals, the same must go for injuries. And, yes, withdrawals are extremely common. Another player even withdrew after Alcaraz.

@klaus_f_roth Injuries can be somewhat predicted based on certain factors, but withdrawals cannot. Besides, even if withdrawals are common, they aren't common one day before the tournament, just because Alcaraz and Popyrin withdraw 2 days before a tournament doesn't make withdrawal a common occurrence in tennis. This isn't my first time resolving withdrawals as N/A and I will continue to do so. Keep crying but I won't change my policy for my tennis markets and if you don't like it, then dont trade on my markets.

Nobody is crying here. Just thought I should explain why it’s a bad policy; from the quality of your replies I can see I needn’t have bothered :)

@klaus_f_roth It's not a bad policy, you think it's a bad policy. But I have a solution: Don't trade on my markets. That's the beauty of Manifold. Make your own market if you want. My 400 other traders have not had a problem with the way I resolve my markets.