Will George Soros die before June 2025?
Will George Soros die before June 2025?
➕
Plus
29
Ṁ8162
Dec 31
7%
chance

Background George Soros is a 94-year-old Hungarian-American billionaire investor and philanthropist, born on August 12, 1930. He is the founder of Soros Fund Management and the Open Society Foundations. As one of the world's most prominent investors and philanthropists, his health status and potential passing would likely have significant implications for his various organizations and initiatives.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to YES if George Soros dies before June 1, 2025, at 12:00 AM ET. The market will resolve to NO if he is still alive at that time. Death must be confirmed by at least two reputable news sources or an official statement from his family or organizations.

Considerations

  • While Soros is of advanced age, he has maintained involvement in his philanthropic work and public appearances into his 90s

  • The market resolution date is relatively near-term (less than 6 months from January 2024)

  • False reports of celebrity deaths are common on social media - only official confirmations will be considered for resolution

#️ Politics
#World
#Geopolitics
#George Soros
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
2 Comments
26 Holders
58 Trades


Sort by:
3mo

Actuarial life tables from ssa.gov give a 94-year-old male a 25% chance of dying in 1 year

Local Poisson approximation implies a random 94yo american man has an ~11% chance of dying by June

If Soros is 2x less healthy than this baseline, he's got a 23% chance of dying by June. If anything I think he's 2x healthier. Buy "NO".

bought Ṁ200 NO from 23% to 20% 3mo
2mo

@XTXinverseXTY
Model-implied prices if Soros is still alive by
Feb 1: 9%
Mar 1: 7%
Apr 1: 4.6%
May 1: 2.4%

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions