If there is no publicly available data about ownership stakes, this will resolve positively unless there is some strong reason to think he is no longer majority owner.
This is question #27 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ411 | |
| 2 | Ṁ339 | |
| 3 | Ṁ141 | |
| 4 | Ṁ84 | |
| 5 | Ṁ71 |
Even if Musk wanted to sell Twitter, no one is going to offer him a price that lets him save face. He is stuck. There will be lawsuits but those should all take longer than a year. Yes, Musk moves fast and the situation is continuing to evolve and 88% is a lot, it still feels a little low to me so I bought M100 of YES moving it to 89%.