When, if ever, will Donald Trump be impeached?

Plus

Ṁ7263

2029

ALL

2025

12%

2026

24%

2027

10%

2028

29%

Prior to leaving office (Presumably in 2029)

Within 100 days after leaving office

76%

Later/Never

In 2029, but before Trump leaves office

This will be resolved based on whenever the House of Representatives adopts a resolution impeaching Donald J. Trump. This market will close as soon as the House adopts such a resolution, and it will resolve based on the date of adoption as soon as the resolution is signed. If a motion to reconsider, rescind, or vacate the resolution is introduced before the resolution is signed the market will reopen.

Added info (11/11/2024):

Trump will be deemed to still be in office at the time of impeachment if the resolution, when adopted by the House, uses language such as

Resolved, That Donald John Trump, President of the United States, is impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors"

If language indicates that they are impeaching a former president, then he will be deemed not to be in office.

If a resolution of impeachment and articles of impeachment are adopted separately, the time of the impeachment resolution's adoption will control.

Added info (11/12/2024):

It will be assumed apt and evidence to the contrary that a president cannot be impeached after death. Should the president die the market will resolve if after two weeks of the president's death, there is no talk of impeaching the president posthumously. The president will not be considered to have left office if section 4 of the 25th amendment is invoked.

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10 Comments

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Corner case:

What if he is impeached multiple times during his term?

Is this market based on the first impeachment only? Or can multiple "year" markets resolve YES?

Or is this line of questioning invalid and I don't understand how the government works well enough?

@Quroe Multiple markets can resolve to YES

filled a Ṁ45 2026 NO at 6% order

Corner case:

Can a President be impeached posthumously or after they leave office?

I've been trying to hammer out all of the corner cases in a market of my own. It seems like a simple boolean state of being in office versus not isn't as cut and dry as it seems at first glance.

/Quroe/will-trumps-2nd-presidential-term-l

The corner case I present above implies that, in the event of the unthinkable, the market may not have enough information to resolve.

This adds an implication to your purple market for "before leaving office".

@Quroe with regard to the first question about a President being impeached after leaving office, I will not close or resolve the market just because the president has left office. If the House chooses to impeach a President who has left office that will count for the purposes of this market. On the other hand, strong constitutional principles council against impeaching a president who has died accordingly resolve this market in accordance with that presumption, unless there is talk within two weeks after the president's death of impeaching them despite them being dead.

Prior to leaving office (Presumably in 2029)

@AaronSimansky This is ambiguous. Does it mean:
a) In 2029, prior to him leaving office
b) At anytime prior to when he leaves office (expected in 2029)

@DanielTilkin @traders I just renamed it to make it clearer

filled a Ṁ6 Prior to leaving off... YES at 38% order

By what authority do we ask, "is Donald Trump POTUS?"

I can imagine a world where he tries to stay in office past his term limit, and you get two camps of people arguing over whether or not he is or isn't still in office.

@Quroe and @traders It will go by whatever office the House says the person holds in the resolution of impeachment.

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