If any regular season game has its final score recorded as a tie this market will resolve to "YES". If the regular season finishes without a tie, this market will resolve to "NO". For a game to count as a tie, the game must actually be played and result in a tie, the cancellation or forfeiture of a game will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the score of the game as first reported at the end of the game will be used. Later action by the commissioner or any other official to overrule or change the score of a game will be irrelevant to this market.
Not sure if this is reliable but according to ChatGPT o1-preview:
"Historical Data Analysis:
Number of Games per Season:
2012–2020 Seasons: Each season had 256 games (32 teams × 16 games ÷ 2).
2021–2023 Seasons: The NFL expanded to 272 games per season (32 teams × 17 games ÷ 2).
Tie Occurrences (2012–2022 Seasons):
Total Seasons Analyzed: 11
Seasons with At Least One Tie: 5 (2012, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021)
Total Ties: 7 ties over 11 seasons.
Calculating the Probability:
Frequency Approach:
Probability ≈ (Number of Seasons with at Least One Tie) ÷ (Total Seasons)
Probability ≈ 5 ÷ 11 ≈ 45%
Game-Based Approach:
Total Games Analyzed: 2,848 games over 11 seasons.
Probability per Game: 7 ties ÷ 2,848 games ≈ 0.246%
Probability of At Least One Tie in a Season:
P(at least one tie)=1−(1−p)nP(\text{at least one tie}) = 1 - (1 - p)^nP(at least one tie)=1−(1−p)n
Where p=0.00246p = 0.00246p=0.00246 (probability per game), n=272n = 272n=272 (games per season).
P(at least one tie)≈1−(1−0.00246)272≈1−e−0.00246×272≈49P(\text{at least one tie}) ≈ 1 - (1 - 0.00246)^{272} ≈ 1 - e^{-0.00246 \times 272} ≈ 49%P(at least one tie)≈1−(1−0.00246)272≈1−e−0.00246×272≈49
Considerations:
Rule Changes: In 2017, the NFL shortened regular-season overtime from 15 to 10 minutes, potentially increasing the likelihood of ties due to less time to score.
Sample Size Limitations: The data set is relatively small, and actual probabilities may fluctuate due to various factors like team strategies, weather conditions, and more.
Conclusion:
Based on historical data and calculations, the estimated probability that at least one NFL regular-season game ends in a tie is approximately 45% to 50%.
Answer: Approximately a 45% to 50% chance that at least one NFL regular-season game ends in a tie."