When will the first NATO troops be on the ground in Ukraine?
20
Ṁ20122025
1D
1W
1M
ALL
4%
before July 2024
11%
before December 2024
14%
before July 2025
23%
before December 2025
89%
Later or never
Official deployments only. Militias and special operations do not count for the purpose of this question. Non-combat units or weapon systems do not count.
Resolves YES for all answers before the event.
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@AlexbGoode in practical terms, probably yes, but not logically - it should resolve NO if there are ever NATO troops in Ukraine.
@BrunoParga The way I phrased the question means if an earlier version resolves to YES all the later ones will resolve yes as well. And 'never or later' will resolve YES if one of the earlier options resolve yes as well. I wanted something like a cumulative distribution. But for this the 'later or never' option doesn't make sense.
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