A nuclear fusion reactor consistently achieves break-even energy output (Q = 1) over a 30-day period by...?
21
Ṁ1001Nov 22
1D
1W
1M
ALL
80%
2050
77%
2045
70%
2040
59%
2030
59%
2035
9%
2025
All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2031, then 2035, 2040 etc will all resolve in YES.
Disclaimers:
This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site. Apologies for that. We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
If you would to add alternative answers, please do so in the comments!
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
41% chance
Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?
71% chance
In which decade will a fusion reactor project first demonstrate engineering breakeven?
Will a private company demonstrate nuclear fusion net gain (>1.0 energy out vs energy in) before 12/31/2025?
21% chance
When will fusion power become viable?
2042
Will Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) will demonstrate net energy gain (Q>1) in their SPARC reactor before 12/31/2025?
21% chance
Will we have a functioning, energy-producing, nuclear fusion reactor by 2033?
30% chance
Will nuclear fusion become a viable energy source before 2050?
62% chance
What will be the next fusion project to reach Q=1 scientific breakeven?
Will Commonwealth Fusion System's SPARC fusion reactor achieve "commercially relevant net energy from fusion" by Jan 1st, 2026?
20% chance