Historically, American presidents have been required to obey court orders. However, the military and law enforcement formally report to the President, not the courts, and past presidents have sometimes defied judges (eg. Lincoln in 1861, with Ex parte Merryman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_parte_Merryman).
During his first term, Trump obeyed many court orders, but defied judges who ruled that his Department of Homeland Security appointments were illegal. Officials such as Chad Wolf (Secretary of Homeland Security) and Ken Cuccinelli (Director of USCIS) remained in office for over a year, even after judges ruled that their positions were unlawful and their acts were legally void (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%932021_Department_of_Homeland_Security_appointment_disputes).
This market resolves YES if, during 2025, Donald Trump or his administration openly defy at least three court orders against their staff, policies, or actions. Defiance must be overt and continuing, and widely reported in reliable sources, as determined by Wikipedia consensus. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
Court orders against government officials in their personal capacity, unrelated to official actions (eg. a Trump staffer charged with using cocaine), do not count. Court orders against state governments, or private people or organizations, do not count.
If Donald Trump does not serve as President during 2025, this market resolves N/A.
Does this count as one?
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Trump Administration Faces Legal Scrutiny Over Deportations to El Salvador
@No_uh The main catch is that the market conditions need to be triggered thrice to resolve YES.
This market resolves YES if, during 2025, Donald Trump or his administration openly defy at least three court orders against their staff, policies, or actions.
The link I shared above looks like it's being interpreted as one court defiance by the media.
The other links on these comments on federal funding freezes seem like a 2nd instance.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we need a 3rd trigger event to resolve YES.
@Quroe I think it likely three instances have already occurred. But I'll try to gather them concretely when I get the time, maybe on Wednesday afternoon.
@mods This seems to have been abandoned.