By the end of 2027, will a majority of people use software or AI software to do their tax?
By the end of 2027, will a majority of people use software or AI software to do their tax?
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Towards the end of 2027, I will do a poll on Manifold asking "Do you mainly use software or AI software to do your tax return?"
Using Turbo tax is an example of mainly using software to do tax return
If a personal accountant is involved, it doesn't count as "mainly using software" to file tax return
As AI improves, I anticipate that Turbo tax and other tax return software would adapt AI for tax return as well.
Resolves Yes if over 50% of the respondent answered Yes.
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Do you mainly use software or AI software to do your tax return
I’d assume this is already above 50%. Who doesn’t use software to do their taxes and is on Manifold?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
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