Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
➕
Plus
22
Ṁ4287
Jan 1
92%
Metaculus
89%
Polymarket
77%
Manifold Market
74%
Kalshi
59%
Augur
47%
Betfair
34%
PredictIt
34%
Iowa Electronic Markets

Which prediction market is the most accurate?
Participants are encouraged to cite statistics and meta-studies regarding the accuracy of various markets. Different measures of accuracy in different scenarios (such as illiquid or low-trader markets) are also considered


Based on the average rankings once the market achieves a sufficient number of traders, I will aggregate the rankings based on the average market price. In this approach, last-minute betting ('sniping') does not significantly affect the rankings. However, maintaining a high price for an answer can influence its rank

This market resolves according to the aggregated ranking:
#1 resolves to 100%, #2 resolves to 90%, and so on.

#Prediction Markets General Discussion
#Prediction market
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
5 Comments
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4mo

surely something like https://calibration.city/ is a more objective

measure

4mo

lol how can manifold markets be at 1, for example for the joe biden dropout market and election market i know from experience that polymarket was actually more accurate

opened a Ṁ1,000 Manifold Market NO at 25% order7mo

It's kind of hard to compare, how will you know exactly? Because betfair for example is not really a prediction market, i would more call it a betting market specializing in mostly sportsbetting. But betfairs has like hundreds of markets that play out each day. To know exactly you would have to analyse every single market result and compare that to platforms like metaculus, see which has the highest brier score.

1y

Manifold is definitely not the most accurate, but it is the most convenient.

1y

@PeanutCookieFantaCheesyPa Give Manifold some more love

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

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