Will Manifold Love get 1% as popular as Tinder within the next 5 years?
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8%
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Since I don't currently see user activity metrics for Manifold Love, I will use google trend to resolve this market
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=Manifold%20Love,tinder&hl=en-US
Resolves Yes if over any month, "Manifold Love" has 1% as much search volume as "Tinder" on google trend
Resolves No if that didnt happen before the end of 2028
(To get better resolution into the search volume, one can install Glimpse which gives you more detailed statistics on Google trend. Glimpse will allow you to check whether "Manifold Love" has 1% as much search volume as "Tinder" on google trend)
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@a2bb I'll look into and consider if I can create another market to compare the user activity between Manifold Love and Tinder, thanks!
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