François Bayrou was appointed as Prime Minister on December 13, 2024, amid political instability. This market predicts whether he will maintain his position through September 30, 2025. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the French government or reputable news sources confirming his status as Prime Minister on that date.
if the Prime Minister is part of a caretaker government, this question will resolve as No Prime Minister.
Update 2025-09-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Bayrou is serving only in a caretaker government on Sep 30, 2025 (e.g., after resigning but remaining in a caretaker role), this market will resolve NO.
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@Anamax I assumed him staying as caretaker wouldn't count as remaining PM before trading, but be mindful that after trading I'm not an impartial observer anymore.
I think that whatever is decided, it would be good to make it official as soon as possible.
A Metaculus question on this subject says that "if the Prime Minister is part of a caretaker government, this question will resolve as No Prime Minister":
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39700/french-pms-grouping-on-december-31-2025/