SHA-256 broken by quantum computer before 2030
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4
Ṁ442029
39%
chance
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1W
1M
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This market resolves YES if a quantum computer successfully breaks SHA-256 encryption before January 1, 2030. Resolution will be based on peer-reviewed research papers or official announcements from major quantum computing companies/research institutions confirming a successful break of SHA-256.
Resolution criteria:
Must be a verified, reproducible break of the full SHA-256 algorithm
Must be practically demonstrated, not just theoretical
Must be confirmed by multiple independent sources in the cryptography community
No power restriction, but it must take less than 1 month to decode a single encrypted file.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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