Will the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' become law by July 4th?
68
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Jul 6
36%
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US President Donald Trump and congressional republicans have pushed for the One Bill Beautiful Bill Act to be passed by July 4th. Will this occur?

This resolves "yes" if it is signed into law by July 4th 11:59PM in Washington DC. This will be resolved from a combination of the linked Wikipedia page (ignoring temporary vandalism), and the congress.gov HR.1 page (which currently might be out of date). Any amendments are allowed as long as the wikipedia page still resolves to an article on passed legislation. I will not bet in this market.

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nancy pelosi would never have allowed a vote like this. slowest roll i've ever seen

this measure seems like will pass. However, this is possibly still a procedural vote? Not sure if anyone knows what is next in the process.

sold แน€19 YES

@Anonculously It has to go to debate first. I think this is voting on that. Once it gets through to debate, then they can vote on the bill. Johnson is unlikely to take it to debate without the votes to pass it.

opened a แน€2,500 NO at 39% order

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The vote drags on. The yeas lead by 2 with 4 Republicans not yet voting. Thus, this would pass unless all 4 vote Nay.

If this vote fails, a new rule vote or other strategy is presumably needed.



How I understand the current status (my understanding is far from perfect):

The "rule vote" H.Res. 566 passed (214 to 212, with 6 not voting) which set how the vote was to proceed. It did not allow debate, or amendments, and voting immediately proceeded to whether to accept the senate version. The vote for accepting the senate version is still ongoing (currently 212 yeas โ€“ 212 nays, with 8 not voting). This vote has gone on for an unusually long amount of time (over an hour and half), with Republican leadership saying their members do not need to be on the floor while the vote is going, likely as they try to convince any holdouts in the 8 Republicans not yet voted, or work out a strategy.

If we're waiting on 1 of 5 in the house to potentially flip, an 80 percent chance of each voting for it leads to 31%. I'm thinking 40% chance tops.