This market will resolve to the coalition that forms a government following the 2025 German federal election. Resolution will occur when:
A coalition agreement is formally signed by the participating parties AND
The Bundestag successfully elects a Chancellor supported by this coalition
If no government is formed and new elections are called, the market will resolve based on the coalition that forms after any subsequent election held as a direct result of failed coalition negotiations from the 2025 election.
All options refer to majority governments unless otherwise explicitly specified.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yes, unless someone adds a "CDU/CSU + SPD Minority" option.
(if you're not familiar with how it works, if someone adds an option and you own Other shares you receive free shares in the added option)