Forgot about this market...

Referencing the last seasonal CSU forecast (from a few weeks ago) I'm betting it down:

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-08.pdf

"U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) - 30% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 21%)

Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 38% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 27%) “

Edit (fixed quote): from my own notebook, for the remainder of season, historically suggests above 20% for a landfalling major hurricane in FL after August. Given the next TC genesis won’t likely occur until September, lower than 40% seems reasonable and above 20% due to the above average seasonal forecast.

I expect rest of September to be a bust (which is good news). Despite that, conditioning on September 7+ I get 17% historically (1991-2023 baseline).

Arbitrage possibility:
Prob in Florida 61% as above
but only 55% for gulf coast?

The AI banner is quite interesting .. made some of the clouds from this satellite perspective appear as if were looking at them from the ground towards the horizon.