[experimental market]
What is this market for? It's for users that have a hard time being profitable on manifold, but would like to still make profits with their mana. Experienced users can help with this, and hearing their reasoning can help you improve your reasoning around market probabilities.
Check the comments. Experienced traders will sometimes share markets that are mispriced, ie you can profit on them by betting your mana. These traders might not find it worthwhile to bet on these markets because they resolve in too much time, or because they have better markets to spend their mana on (Risk-free interest rates != 0).
If you bet on a market because of a comment below, you are encouraged to state this, and tip the person that wrote the comment with 20% to 40% of the profits you made because of them. If you take all the "alpha" (fix the shared market to the correct price), you should say that so that others don't waste their time on that market.
This is a beginner friendly market, so you are welcome to ask questions. Some example might be "I think this market (with a link) is super overpriced, for this or that reason. Can someone let me know if they think I'm wrong?". If you have further questions, the [manifold discord](https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh) is great for this.
Some extra details:
If someone lies to steal people's mana, by saying false things about markets to enrich themselves, they will be banished and shamed. I'll also probably close this market and consider the experiment a failure.
If I consider a comment with a free mana claim to be wrong but not malicious, I reserve the right to hide this comment so others don't see it.
Please do not break site rules! Do not trick people into giving you quick profits at their expense.
If you consider a free-mana claim to be wrong, comment under it with your reasoning. We can discuss the merits of it if they are uncertain.
I strongly recommend against sharing markets or trading in markets that have 5year+ resolution dates. Shorter term (up to a year) is strongly encouraged.
Resolution Criterion: If 20 profit opportunities are shared, and someone comments under them saying they have taken them (without lying about this), before August, the market resolves YES.
Tipping tutorial: Press the ... at the top of a comment, you will see this menu:
You can click Tip and select the amount you want to send.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ160 | |
| 2 | Ṁ83 | |
| 3 | Ṁ73 | |
| 4 | Ṁ19 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
Ok for ACTUAL free profit it doesn't get any more direct than this: resolves YES on Jan 1st:
/NuñoSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3
Currently 97%, so a true 3% risk free rate of return (with some people e.g. me who wouldn't mind selling off some stake at that price)
@traders I'm glad I ran the market, lots of profit opportunities were found and exploited, but maybe emphasis wasn't put enough (by me) on fixing them and stating so, and as such not 20 profit opportunities filled those resolution requirements. Thank you to everyone for participating! I might recreate a new iteration of this later, but if you want to run one you can too. Of course some of these opportunities remain to be taken, so browse this market's comment section if you'd like.
@Bayesian I count about 9 replies that state, in one way or another, that an opportunity has been taken. I don't know how many have been taken as a result of being shared here without an explicit statement – maybe 20+?
https://manifold.markets/TJa529e/how-many-movies-in-2024-will-make-1
Linked MC resolves at end of year. 0 is already impossible (Inside Out 2 is far above 1 bil). so that's free profit. (1 might become impossible if deadpool breaks 1bil)
If Kamala (or anyone not listed) wins, this market N/As. So it’s equivalent to a risk free bond if you think it’ll be Kamala or trump. If trump wins, it resolves YES, if not, it resolves N/A and you get your money back. So maybe the most classic free money setup you can find (albeit with a chance of no return)
https://manifold.markets/getby/2024-us-presidential-election-winne?r=WmlkZGxldHdpeA
i believe the motivation options here should sum to 100%? https://manifold.markets/jacob/which-will-best-describe-the-indivi
also minor arbitrage opportunity (shared by its author) https://manifold.markets/pluffASMR/was-the-trump-shooter-left-or-right
Still at 12% and pretty much guaranteed no. Long time to resolve, though.
https://manifold.markets/KIIER/will-it-be-found-that-mrbeast-is-th
The amount of mana you expect to gain yearly per mana invested. If I were to 1% that market, I would need to spend Ṁ6320 and I would expect to gain Ṁ6481 once it resolves. That's Ṁ161 profit over 25.5 years, which means Ṁ6.31 or slightly below 0.01% yearly profit on my initial investment.
Most of the time I would aim for >5% monthly profit