What is this market for? It's for users that have a hard time being profitable on manifold, but would like to still make profits with their mana. Experienced users can help with this, and hearing their reasoning can help you improve your reasoning around market probabilities.
Check the comments. Experienced traders will sometimes share markets that are mispriced, ie you can profit on them by betting your mana. These traders might not find it worthwhile to bet on these markets because they resolve in too much time, or because they have better markets to spend their mana on (Risk-free interest rates != 0).
If you bet on a market because of a comment below, you are encouraged to state this, and tip the person that wrote the comment with 20% to 40% of the profits you made because of them. If you take all the "alpha" (fix the shared market to the correct price), you should say that so that others don't waste their time on that market.
This is a beginner friendly market, so you are welcome to ask questions. Some example might be "I think this market (with a link) is super overpriced, for this or that reason. Can someone let me know if they think I'm wrong?". If you have further questions, the [manifold discord](https://discord.com/invite/eHQBNBqXuh) is great for this.
Some extra details:
If someone lies to steal people's mana, by saying false things about markets to enrich themselves, they will be banished and shamed. I'll also probably close this market and consider the experiment a failure.
If I consider a comment with a free mana claim to be wrong but not malicious, I reserve the right to hide this comment so others don't see it.
Please do not break site rules! Do not trick people into giving you quick profits at their expense.
If you consider a free-mana claim to be wrong, comment under it with your reasoning. We can discuss the merits of it if they are uncertain.
I strongly recommend against sharing markets or trading in markets that have 5year+ resolution dates. Shorter term (up to a year) is strongly encouraged.
Resolution Criterion: If 40 profit opportunities are shared, and someone comments under them saying they have taken them (without lying about this), before October, the market resolves YES.
Tipping tutorial: Press the ... at the top of a comment, you will see this menu:
You can click Tip and select the amount you want to send.
At the time of this post, the probabilities in the following market add up to 121% instead of 100%: https://manifold.markets/Moggy/which-former-blue-wall-state-will-b-t2aynnhwj2 Full disclosure: I set up some YES limit orders to sell my NO shares.
At the time I make this post, two of the answers on my White Sox season losses market have become impossible, as I have marked them, but are currently trading above the minimum. The question resolves September 30, 2024, so it's certainly not a long-term commitment.
I will continue to mark answers on that market when they become impossible.
(So, why haven't I bought them down to the minimum? I am explicitly committed to not betting on my own markets.)
couple of other mispriced reddit markets (both would require about a 50% drop in the price):
https://manifold.markets/esusatyo/will-reddit-dip-below-their-ipo-pri-0b371cd9315f
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-reddit-drop-below-30-before-th
https://manifold.markets/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d1e8126d974?r=TGFzc2VSdW5zdA
https://manifold.markets/jdilla/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th?r=TGFzc2VSdW5zdA
I'm not too sure about this because im also a semi new trader but i think you can just bet no and if it resolves yes you'll be wiped out by ai anyway so you don't need any mana.
https://manifold.markets/Gen/will-the-next-president-of-the-unit
https://manifold.markets/Nightsquared/will-someone-other-than-harris-or-t
I'd say this is an arbitrage opportunity, but honestly I think you can just bet the first market down to ~0
These markets should basically total to 100%, but currently total to 109%. I believe you can guarantee profits by betting certain amounts on NO on both.
https://manifold.markets/lisamarsh/will-the-democrats-win-a-majority-i
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/will-republicans-take-the-majority-92f2658efb69
I'm not super experienced in Manifold, but this market is basically guaranteed to resolve as YES due to Debby.
https://manifold.markets/StefanXJ7/will-a-hurricane-strike-the-contine?r=SnVsZXMzYjhk
/NuñoSempere/this-question-will-resolve-positive-4a418ad86de3
Literally free mana, 2% in 5 months is roughly on par with the best high yield saving accounts in terms of APY.
(In other words, please buy out my shares so I can try to get more than 5% APY)
Another arbitrage opportunity: These appear to be the same market, but have a bunch of inconsistent pricings. Some examples:
-"Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris (or any Dem ticket)" is at 38% in the first market but "Kamala Harris" and "Joe Biden" total to 52% in the second.
-"Donald Trump and/or JD Vance (or any GOP ticket)" is at 35% in the first market but "Donald Trump" and "J. D. Vance" total to 24% in the second. (Arguably this could be because traders think the possibility of some non-Trump/Vance GOP ticket winning the first market makes that option more likely, but I don't think it should be that much more likely)
-Sam Altman is at 0.3% in the first market but 5% in the second.
-AI is at 8% in the first market but 2% in the second
These markets use an intricate resolution scheme, which might make these resolve in weird ways; although, they both refer to the same resolution scheme (i.e. the 2023 market). At the very least, straightforward options like Sam Altman and AI should resolve the same.
Finally, here's another market to consider. (This one seems different because it allows more than one option to resolve to yes)