In 2030, will commercially available robots have the capability of opening most Ikea packages meant to be built by one person, and build them, using the printed instructions as guides?

If it is ambiguous whether they have this capability, or they may have it but I and other market participants aren't able to test this by then but some robot is not updated over time so the December 2030 capabilities can be tested after 2030, the market will resolve to these December 2030 capabilities.

If the robot was clearly trained explicitly for this task (eg it doesn't even need the printed instructions), that is still sufficient for a positive resolution.

For this market, a commercially available robot means:

• Publicly orderable: Any adult or ordinary business can place a binding purchase order or sign a standard sales/lease agreement through normal channels (public checkout or “contact sales” is fine) without invitation-only access, research-partner status, NDAs, or pre-selection.

• Real product, not bespoke: A defined model offered by the maker or an authorized reseller; not a one-off custom build or lab prototype.

• No price cap: Any price point qualifies (even very high).

• Geography OK: Sales limited to a country/region still count, as long as the general public in that jurisdiction can buy/lease it.

• Not a curated stunt: A handful of units sold only to preselected VIPs/investors/celebrities does not count as commercial availability.

• Orders vs. waitlists: A vendor-accepted binding order/contract by Dec 31, 2029 counts; a non-binding “waitlist”/“expression of interest” does not.

• New units: Secondary-market/used sales don’t establish availability.