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Unless otherwise specified:
"Trump bans" refers to Trump or the US government, but actions, like "Trump says X" refers only to Trump. I expect the intent to be pretty clear. (If not, I reserve the right to modify the phrasing to make it clearer; ping me if you find an option unclear)
"Trump" refers to the person that was president of the US in 2017-2021.
If something is not known to have happened, unless otherwise specified, it would resolve NO. For example, the option "Trump gets COVID" resolves NO unless it is announced or sufficiently confirmed, despite the possibility that he gets covid without announcing it. The intent here is to resolve YES when the balance of evidence clearly indicates the option prediction happened.
I reserve the right to cancel any option that doesn't seem relevant / unconnected to trump / etc. If a question is ambiguous, please ping the question creator for clarification. If they don't clarify within a few days, ping me and I'll decide how it's disambiguated.
Consensus of credible reporting will be used for this market's resolution. I am not following Trump's every move so I'd very much appreciate @s when options need to be resolved.
@KimberlyWilberLIgt what is the minimum threshold for being reduced? A single dollar lower budget? A single employee being let go?
@TheAllMemeingEye idk, I’ll defer to the market creator. I wanted to be broad because I expect institutions like these to be choked by indirect means - funding cuts, stripped of power to govern, reduced wages/pensions, etc - instead of dissolved via explicit EOs / congressional acts.
@KimberlyWilberLIgt They need to be reduced the most of all the agencies listed here
@NivlacM https://www.usa.gov/agency-index
Wayback has an index of this page Nov 6. So if we see a significant decrease in agencies we can count and compare
@Predictor I think an attempt at a military purge would immediately lead to a military coup
Cutting the ACA is probably going to affect this :( Trends in Birth Rates After Elimination of Cost Sharing for Contraception by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act - PMC
The only times this has happened this century were the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID lockdowns right? If so I'm surprised the odds are so high
https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/us-gdp/
Surprised this is at such high odds given how ridiculously high the bar to beat is (the unemployment spike at the start of the COVID lockdowns)
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
@NivlacM I don't want to dox you but I would have a preference for a reformulation of this question that isn't dependent on you sticking around to manifold for 4 years, so it could be like a specific walmart in your state / country, or a random one in the us, that has internet-available price quotations or something? It's not a huge deal so I'm fine with keeping it as is, but just voicing this preference in case you agree ig.
@Bayesian nah. If y'all can't get a hold of me in 2 years I trust y'all to resolve it reasonably. Otherwise it's the price of my milk 😡 currently $3.22 per gallon
@TheAllMemeingEye working criteria: it's not visible on him in multiple consecutive well lit public appearances over multiple weeks
@dlin007 Does "a former Democratic presidential candidate" refer to (A) only the party's official presidential NOMINEE (i.e. Harris, H. Clinton, Obama, Kerry, Gore, B. Clinton, etc) — or (B) a candidate who was in the running for the Democratic nomination at some point in time (i.e. the above, but also Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, etc)?