Which model will OpenAI announce first, GPT-5 or Strawberry?
62
Ṁ22k
2025
Strawberry98.7%

Rumor has it that OpenAI is sitting on two important models:

1) Strawberry (formerly Q*), which does multi-step reasoning

2) GPT-5

If both are announced before march 2025, will GPT-5 come first? If both are not announced, the market will resolve N/A. Changes to their names, as long as the models in question are clearly the ones described, will not affect this market. If both get announced in the same sentence, or are actually the same model, resolves 50/50

Rumor that inspired this market:

People are murmuring that GPT-5 sometime in Sept-Oct, and this multi-step reasoning/L2 stuff in November

#AI
#OpenAI
#Technical AI Timelines
#ChatGPT
#GPT-5 Speculation
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Are we resolving @Bayesian ?

Any update @Bayesian ?

If both are not announced, the market will resolve N/A.

Waiting for the gpt5 release per market description

i guess i meant if either is not announced. That seems clear from the previous sentence and context hmm

@Bayesian Yeah, I'm not getting you. Clearly Strawberry was announced first since GPT-5 has not been announced yet.

@Ashwin But if gpt5 is not announced til march 2025, then the conditional isn’t triggered

@Bayesian Okay, I understand now. Have a good day :)

bought Ṁ3,541 Strawberry

@Bayesian Strawberry is released! OpenAI releases "Strawberry" ChatGPT model with better reasoning (axios.com)

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1834275828697297021

If GPT-5 actually is Strawberry, how would you resolve this?

oh that's a good question. same as if they're announced at the same time; resolves to 50/50

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