Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has stated this market will be handled the same as another of their markets. This implies:
The close date is not hard, and the market may be resolved later when the outcome is certain.
The market is open to re-resolution if the initial resolution is later found to be incorrect.
Update 2025-07-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user, the creator has implied that an announcement from Harmonic would count towards the resolution of this market.
Update 2025-07-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will resolve this market to N/A.
This is due to ambiguity in the question, which did not specify if the AI labs needed to solve the problems within the official time limits. Please see the linked comment for the creator's full reasoning.
@Bayesian Nothing in your question says that labs need to solve the problems in the allotted time--it just asks whether exactly 2 labs will announce gold. If you plan to add that resolution criteria I think it would only be fair to resolve the question ambiguously given others who have already bought No. (I have not participated in the question.)
@WilliamKiely Yeah I believe I will resolve N/A. I think this is an understandabke confusion and it’s my bad. I didnt mention this requirement but in the comments i implied the market was useless meaning it was a perfect arb with the other market where the labs did need to complete in the allotted time, which led to this ambiguity. Idk if id even decided for this market what was the most apt requirement ahead of time. I’ll N/A, sorry @traders (Thankfully no large positions)
I just realized this market is useless, might have had some use with "will less than 3" or "will 2 or less" or something
https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/ai-imo-2025-how-many-ai-labs-announ?r=QmF5ZXNpYW4