Since the roster may change, I will add an option each friday whenever a new contestant is posted
Note to new users: shares in "Other" get automatically converted whenever a new option is added. So if you buy "Yes" shares you are voting towards all the non-listed competitors and similarly if you buy "No" shares
@traders since there has been a lot of questions about adding currently known finalists I made a poll to decide whether I should include them all at once. Poll becomes binding after a quorum of 50% + 1 (39 votes) is reached
@BayesianTom I wouldn't add them now. The current dynamics where a new post is released and then you have to rush to read it to bet is quite fun. By keeping everything clustered by other we are limiting incentives for people to go in and read all the articles ahead of time.
Also betting based off of the title alone is pretty dumb. (yes i know we can read them all ahead of time)
@WillJevons the great thing about prediction markets is that if someone is making dumb bets you get to take their money!
There will be around 13 reviews posted overall, so "average" should be something like 7%.
From this post, the expected finalists are:
• Alpha School
• School (Review 1 by DK) (promoted from "honorable mention")
• Dementia
• Islamic Geometric Patterns
• Joan of Arc
• Mashed Potatoes
• Men
• Ollantay
• Phase I Research
• Synaptic Plasticity
• The ACX Commentariat
• The Internet That Might Have Been
• The Russo-Ukrainian War
Honorable Mentions (some of which might get promoted) are at least
• Bishop's Castle
• Bukele
• Elon Musk's Algorithm
• JFK Conspiracies
• Martial Arts
• Miniatur Wunderland
• Watergate
All the reviews are linked here.
@AndrewMaxwell Shares of Other get split into to shares of all future answers added to the market.