Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if California Assembly Bill 1154 (AB 1154) is enacted into law by December 31, 2026. Enactment occurs when the bill is passed by both the California State Assembly and Senate and is signed by the Governor. If the bill fails to pass either chamber, is vetoed without an override, or is not signed into law by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

AB 1154, introduced by Assemblymember Juan Carrillo, aims to streamline the development of small Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) and Junior Accessory Dwelling Units (JADUs) in California. Key provisions of the bill include:

• Parking Requirements: Prohibiting local agencies from imposing parking standards on ADUs that are 500 square feet or smaller.

• Owner-Occupancy: Removing the owner-occupancy requirement for JADUs that have separate sanitation facilities.

• Rental Terms: Mandating that rentals of JADUs be for terms longer than 30 days.

The bill has garnered bipartisan support and is co-sponsored by California YIMBY and Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis. As of April 28, 2025, AB 1154 passed the Assembly floor and was referred to the Senate for further consideration. (a39.asmdc.org)

Considerations

Traders should monitor the bill's progress through the legislative process, including committee reviews and potential amendments in the Senate. The bill's final passage and enactment depend on various factors, including political dynamics and stakeholder support. For the most current information, refer to official legislative tracking resources. (legiscan.com)

• Update 2025-07-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If the bill number AB 1154 does not pass, but its text is substantially passed as an amendment within another bill, this will be considered a Yes resolution.

  • In ambiguous situations, the creator will first consult the California YIMBY tracker to see if they claim a victory, and then use their own judgment.