Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:
https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en
Itβs impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.
Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large.
Once resolved, countries canβt be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Germany, which has been re-added to the market after previous protests:
It will resolve YES if another mass protest with >10,000 participants begins.
This qualifying protest must start in May 2025 or thereafter.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen all the II labeled entries have an original. It will pop up when you search. Iβll gladly take your input and add the month. Canβt right now as Iβm camping.
@BlueDragon There is one now in Kenya, though of course whether it ends up on the list, is another matter. Unsure how to add the possibility that there may be another later again.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen please feel free to add it! If it shows up on the list I will resolve it. If not it remains an option going forward.
@BlueDragon the issue is that it is in the news right now, so it would only be a prediction on whether it is reported on
@JussiVilleHeiskanen well, whether it ends up on the Carnagie Foundation list, yes. You can read more about their methodology on their website.
@BlueDragon Ahah, this may be the most germane link...
https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/04/misunderstanding-global-protests?lang=en
@BlueDragon Hmm. even that link above is more analysis of their results, rather than their methodology. The only thing I found about methodology was about their study of climate protests, which told which types protests did not qualify. But I have yet to find a subpage specifically about their methodology. I'll keep searching though. Thank you for piqueing my curiosity.
@MaybeNotDepends Heck maybe 99% of the protests are missing. India has a lot of people and a lot of farmer, religious, ethnic, political, and other protests. I'd expect 1000+ protests/year with 1000+ people.
@MaybeNotDepends Sold my shares (crashed the price, I don't care). I wish there was a good data source for this, but I don't think there is. Close the market, resolve NA.
@MaybeNotDepends if you give me a source or two for India, Iβll ask about the protests too.
Please read through the Carnegie Protest Trackerβs website. They have a methodology that suggests there is more veracity and accountability to how they are verifying the facts on the ground and determining the size of protests than a regular media outlet. This may explain why some protests reported in the media donβt show up in the tracker.
I will share back anything I learn from corresponding with them so that traders can make an informed decision.
In the meantime, please do not post 5 messages in one sitting. 1-2 is enough. This is too much to respond to.
I believe the data source is not stating how many people were at a single protest - but they are compiling them. Is this true?
If so, it isn't measuring "if there is a protest of > 10,000 participants" so much as "if there is a series of protests that summed had > 10,000 participants". The latter is significantly more likely to occur.