Will there be major social unrest in the USA by July 2025?
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Will there be some form of major social unrest in the USA by July 2025? Examples that would lead to a YES resolution include:

  • Widespread rioting leading to double-digit deaths

  • Armed insurrection

  • The January 6th insurrection

  • Organized terrorism

Things which would not count:

  • An assassination attempt perpetrated by a "lone wolf"

  • Generally speaking, isolated incidents of social unrest.

Due to the qualitative nature of the decision, I will not bet in this market.

#๏ธ Politics
#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics
#Trump
#๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential Election
#Social collapse
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If Trump loses, I believe there will likely be unrest at least as significant as Jan 6.

bought แน€50 NO

So to be clear the BLM uprisings wouldnโ€™t count?

They would not, in my opinion, constitute major social unrest, but pretty close. For the purpose of this question I would qualify the BLM protests/riots as moderate social unrest. Well on its way to major unrest, but not quite there yet.

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