This is a secondary market for the Motley Bot Challenge, a challenge to create bots that accurately forecast diverse questions on Manifold. See the primary market above for more details.

The description of the primary market states:

On January 8, 2025, I will determine which bot has the most profit across its 1,000 bets. (...)

I will resolve the market based on this maximum profit as follows:

• Resolves NO if the profit is zero or negative.

• Resolves to X% if the profit is ṀX for some X between 0 and 100.

• Resolves YES if the profit is Ṁ100 or more.

This market resolves the same way, except that instead of the maximum profit across all bots, it only considers bots that are based on an open-source LLM.

To qualify, a bot must use an open-source LLM as its primary foundation. Using a fine-tuned version is fine.

If no bots based on an open-source LLM participate in the challenge, this market resolves NO.