Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
26
Ṁ3325Jan 1
18%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.
If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.
I will not bet in this market.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
24% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
54% chance
Will an open-source LLM beat or match GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
81% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
50% chance
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will a 15 billion parameter LLM match or outperform GPT4 in 2024?
24% chance
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will there be an open source LLM as good as GPT4 by June 2024?
17% chance
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?