
Will a U.S. Federal Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Plus
12
Ṁ3612028
14%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The account cannot be owned by a person who works for the federal government - the government entity itself must own it.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will a U.S. State Government entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
10% chance
Will there be a Manifold Markets competitor before 2025?
92% chance
Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
8% chance
Will the Atlantic create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
21% chance
Will Manifold have a numerical market type by June 1, 2025?
81% chance
Will CFTC commissioner Caroline Pham create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
13% chance
Will any past or current president of the United States create a market on Manifold by end of 2050?
9% chance
Will Sam Altman create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
8% chance
Will Bloomberg create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
13% chance
Will Ethan Mollick create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
27% chance