Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030? | Manifold

Will AMF lack funding to implement effective initiatives before 2030?

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2031

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AMF = Against Malaria Foundation

"Effective" determined by meeting GiveWell's room for more funding requirements.

See the below Twitter thread for more context:

https://twitter.com/galestorm94/status/1563606182853353473?t=4smhPbVBXP3AGyBTVGhzXQ&s=19

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Will AMF claim to NOT need any additional funding at any point before 2033

Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

By the end of 2032, will GiveWell have retroactively reduced their estimates of the effectiveness of AMF between 2014 and 2019 by at least a factor of 2?

Will the Global Priorities Institute still exist in 2030 ?

Will FM-2030 be alive in 2030?

United nations - will it stand by 2040?

Will GiveWell be funding constrained a majority of the time until 2030?

Will the Effective Altruism movement continue to exist in 2035?