Following the Hamas coup in 2007, Israel and Egypt began blockading the Gaza strip, placing restrictions on trade and travel. These restrictions have varied heavily over the years. More information can be found below:
This resolves yes, if the blockade by Israel or Egypt is lifted (for at least three months) before 2026. If the blockade ends at the end of 2025, I will wait 3 months before resolving the market.
The blockade is considered as lifted based on designation by reliable media. It will also resolve yes if I determine that either Egypt or Israel allow (for at least 3 months) for all goods and people to travel through their border without significant restrictions.
Freedom of movement is central for humanitarian relief, and it seems it’s been treated as such so far:
Point 8 of Trump’s plan: “Opening the Rafah crossing in both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented under the January 19, 2025 agreement”
Point 12: “… those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.”
Trump repeated several times last week that everyone will be allowed to leave Gaza and come back freely.
The phase 1 signed deal included very few points, but freedom of movement was one of the chosen. (full text of document reported by KAN)
Times of Israel reported today: “On October 14, 2025, in compliance with the Trump agreement, in coordination with the European Union and the parties, the Rafah crossing will be opened alternately in two directions, exiting towards Egypt and entering towards Gaza,”
Quite bullyish on this market, but I’m not buying more YES yet because the requirement to last for 3 months may not be met if the peace process derails.