Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES if before April 1st, 2025 (CEST):
The German government makes an official announcement confirming it will supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine OR
Credible news sources (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or AP) report a confirmed German decision to supply the missiles
The market resolves NO if:
No such announcement or confirmation is made before April 1st, 2025
Background
Chancellor Scholz has consistently opposed sending Taurus missiles, citing concerns about Germany being drawn into the war. However, opposition leaders have pledged to supply them if elected in February 2025.
The Taurus KEPD 350 is a German-Swedish cruise missile with a range of about 500km. Ukraine has been requesting these missiles since mid-2023 to strike deep behind Russian lines. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has consistently opposed sending Taurus missiles, citing concerns about Germany being drawn into the conflict and the need for German personnel to assist with targeting. Opposition parties, including the CDU and FDP, support delivering the missiles to Ukraine.
Early federal elections in Germany are scheduled for February 2025. Opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the CDU has pledged to supply Taurus missiles if his party comes to power.
Considerations
A change in government following the February 2025 elections could significantly impact this decision
Previous weapons delivery announcements by Germany have sometimes been preceded by intense diplomatic negotiations and public debate
The evolving situation in Ukraine and broader geopolitical developments could influence Germany's position
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@JussiVilleHeiskanen The government will probably be CDU/SPD and maybe greens, so the question is if SPD will be convinced. It's definitely possible.
FDP will most likely not be in the government after elections.
@CommanderKeen Great market! I've sweepified it and made some changes to the description (removed repeating parts and removed some of the No criteria which were redundant and could have caused confusion).
If you would rather not have it be sweepstakes and would like the description restored to how it was please let me know and I can make a new market and restore this one to how it was.
"Opposition leaders have pledged to supply them if elected in February 2025", but the chances of Germany forming a stable government before this market's deadline are uncertain. A market to calibrate against: https://manifold.markets/Ebcc1/will-germany-form-a-stable-governme