Trump tried to win over the crowd by pledging to include a Libertarian in his Cabinet, but many in the crowd hissed in disbelief.
Resolves YES if Trump wins the 2024 election and nominates a Libertarian to any Cabinet-level position (even if the Senate rejects them). To count, they must be a currently registered Libertarian (if they are from a state with party registration) or else a currently self-identified Libertarian. Resolves NO if he leaves office without doing so.
If Trump loses the election, resolves PROB to the average of the market probability in the week before Election Day. (Hopefully this should be fairly resistant to manipulation.)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Iām changing the exact criteria around party registration to match with my other market. Happy to provide mana for anyone who feels misled by this.