NSF made an announcement that they will only back one of the two planned U.S. owned terrestrial telescopes:
https://www.science.org/content/article/nsf-wrestles-dilemma-over-dueling-giant-telescopes
The external panel hired to advise the NSF should likely have a decision by end of September: https://ww2.aip.org/fyi/external-panel-to-advise-nsf-on-extremely-large-telescope-plans
Which one would it be?
Market resolves based on NSF's official decision when available.
Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Date: Extended further.
New Option Added: Neither.
"The fate of two planned giant telescopes in Hawaii and Chile rests with the director of the National Science Foundation (NSF), after a review of the U.S.-led projects, each vying for $1.6 billion in NSF funding, did not pick a clear favorite."
Read more here: https://www.science.org/content/article/nsf-panel-says-proposed-giant-telescopes-would-swamp-agency-s-budget
The evaluation panel's report: https://nsf-gov-resources.nsf.gov/files/ELT-Evaluation-Panel-Report.pdf
From the Science article: "The report notes that the TMT has already received $700 million from its partners and has commitments that total $2 billion of its total estimated cost of $3.9 billion. Even if it wins the full $1.6 billion from NSF, the TMT would need at least $300 million more from elsewhere. The GMT has commitments of $850 million with most already paid. The full funding from NSF would be enough to complete construction, according to the GMT."
I'm extending the market resolution date further and introducing a third option: Neither.
Spoke too soon. Not sure how to add a third option to this type of question. If anyone knows please let me know