Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?
Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?
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Do you consider any past or current conflict to have used such weapon system? If not, then any number of use in the following would resolve this market Yes (0 to 1, "infinite" percent increase).
Additionally, it is your prerogative to keep this market vague as the creator of it, but people here often like to have at least some idea of what you'll consider autonomous AI weapon systems, to decrease resolution risk, especially for such a subject with a degree of ambiguity on what "autonomous" mean.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
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