Will the world be more religious on 21st April 2029 than on 21st April 2024?
Mini
5
Ṁ802029
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
According to the statistics I could find, around 84% of people globally are religious on 21st April 2024.
This market resolves to “yes” if the mainstream statistics I can find suggest that more than 84% of people globally are religious on April 21st 2029.
“No” of fewer than 84% of people globally are religious on that date.
“N/a” if reliable statistics cannot be found or if they disagree with each other as to whether religiosity has increased or decreased.
I will not bet on this market to avoid motivated reasoning.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
41% chance
Will the world become more authoritarian in 2024?
79% chance
Will belief in sex/gender distinction reach 2022 levels again before 2030?
40% chance
Will the percentage of the global population that is religiously unaffiliated increase from 16.4% by 2026?
76% chance
Will the percentage of Americans who are religiously unaffiliated be greater in 2026 than it was in 2023?
79% chance
Will I be happier in 2025 than 2024?
48% chance
Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?
74% chance
Will there be more than 500,000,000 religious Buddhists worldwide on 1st January 2030?
52% chance
Will global inequality be worse in the year 2100 than 2024?
47% chance
Will I be significantly happier in 2024?
39% chance