At the beginning of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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See base market: /ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
On Jan 1st, 2026, I'll try to ask @ScottAlexander if he thinks such a capability already exists. If he's unavailable/unwilling to adjudicate, I'll defer to my best understanding of the criteria. I reserve the right to resolve N/A or wait until Scott clarifies the criteria if there is significant ambiguity. I won't bet in this market (but I may in the other one).
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